Political Wisdom: Meet…Barack Obama
WSJ.COM POLITICS BLOG
Here's a summary of the smartest new political analysis on the Web:
by Gerald F. Seib and Sara Murray
With the primaries in Indiana and North Carolina looming, both Politico and Slate take note of the new, more informal, more personal campaigning style of Sen. Barack Obama. "Obama, once the king of the arena rally, is downsizing. He came in contact this weekend with only a fraction of the voters he usually does in the lead-up to a primary," writes Politico's Carrie Budoff Brown. Instead of massive rallies where he delivers one of his signature speeches, Brown notes, he's made "an almost 180-degree shift" to meeting voters in small and informal settings. Why? "The campaign wasn't telling the story of who he was,' an aide said. So in Indiana, he aimed to reintroduce himself, at a time when his rivals were painting him as out of touch, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy began eroding his personal appeal and the campaign struggled to regain its footing after a sound defeat in Pennsylvania."
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Similarly, Slate's John Dickerson follows Obama in Indiana and says his day included two events "outlining his personal and patriotic closing argument for primary voters. The end of the day was to be devoted to events that would show him interacting on a personal level with human beings," including one at a farmhouse in Kempton, Ind., "where his great, great, great uncle once lived."
Later, at a skating rink, "Obama's daughters, Sasha and Malia, did skate—tentatively but adorably. Obama and his wife, Michelle, walked alongside while a ring of photographers and cameramen captured the scene…If the point of the scene was to make the candidate look just like any other (well-dressed) Indiana father out on a Saturday night, then campaign strategists got what they wanted."
NBC's Chuck Todd notes that the hardest place to be in this campaign year is on top, where harsh media attention has proven to be to tough for everybody who occupies that spot. "Sen. John McCain was knocked down from his frontrunner perch early on, and never really regained that status, managing somehow to win the Republican nomination as an underdog candidate." Meanwhile, "Sen. Hillary Clinton was given the frontrunner treatment for all of '07 through February's Super Tuesday. Eventually, she was worn down tremendously—just three weeks ago, an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll recorded her worst personal rating since we started tracking her." Now it's Obama, "who after months of riding under the media scrutiny radar, is now experiencing what McCain and Clinton went through months ago."
The Huffington Post's Thomas B. Edsall unveils Clinton's "nuclear option" for winning the nomination. Here's how it works: At least 50% of the Democratic Party's Rules and Bylaws Committee is committed to Clinton, so she'll basically "try to ram through a decision to seat the disputed 210-member Florida and 156-member Michigan delegations. Such a decision would give Clinton an estimated 55 or more delegates than Obama, according to Clinton campaign operatives."
But to risk such a plan Clinton would have to first win Indiana and either lose North Carolina by small margin or win it. She'll have to continue to be strong candidate in primaries through May 31, and her argument that she's the best general election candidate will have to take hold within the party. One of the primary reasons this is so risky: "Clinton loyalists on the Rules Committee would have to be persuaded to put their political futures on the line by defying major party constituencies, especially black leaders backing Barack Obama. Committee members are unlikely to take such a step unless they are convinced that Clinton has a strong chance of winning the nomination."
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