SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
From: zonder3/4/2005 10:04:57 AM
  Read Replies (1) of 116555
 
US Employment Report - Steady But Unspectacular Improvement

Feb Jan Dec
Nonfarm payrolls 262k 32k 155k
Unemployment rate 5.4% 5.2% 5.4%
Average earnings 0.0% 0.3% 0.2%

Nonfarm employment showed a slightly stronger profile in February than the
market consensus expected, coming in at 262k (225k consensus) and not far
from our forecast of 260k. We suspect that actual sentiment
in the market was skewed towards a higher number. as evidence of this we
note the proliferation of big US institutions who were going for a 300k plus
number. At the same time, the previous month was revised down by 14k to
132k. The pace of jobs creation is picking up steadily but the average gain
in the six months to February of 182k is still below the average rate of
growth in the second (more dynamic) half of the last cycle when employment
growth averaged 230k between 1995 and 2000.

Conclusion: How do we assess the overall picture from the employment
report? It continues to show an image of an economy growing at a slightly
above trend rate (Greenspan called it a "healthy" pace of growth in his
recent testimony. At the same time this is accompanied by very moderate
cost push pressures (note the 0.0% m/m growth in average hourly earnings in
February). This data is supportive of the current monetary policy stance -
expect neither an acceleration in the pace of tightening nor a pause in the
first half of this year. The Fed is moving up promptly to establish a
neutral fed funds rate. We anticipate a 3.25% zone rate by mid-year.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2026 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News