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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 288.52-0.3%Nov 14 4:00 PM EST
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To: Gottfried who wrote (22)10/21/2000 8:27:07 AM
From: scott_jiminez  Read Replies (1) of 95420
 
Gottfried - here is that data calculated to show relative low/high range in the SOXX. I've divided the low by the high for each month and sorted by the result. A '70' means the SOXX low was 70% of the SOXX high for the given month. As was suggested in my previous post, the volatility during Sept. of this year was closely matched by that in Oct. '97 (and a couple of other recent periods). Note: if we assume that the high/low for the SOXX has already been hit for October, 2000, then the % L/H is 68.88, the second lowest in the past 5 years. BTW, in case there was any doubt, there was a very high correlation (r = .88) between bookings and the average ([high + low]/2) SOXX close for each month.

.Month......% L/H
Feb 00......64.85
Sep 00......72.37
Aug 98......74.64
Oct 97......76.42
Oct 98......76.52
Jun 99......77.18
Nov 96......78.10
Nov 98......80.23
Jan 97......80.74
Jul 00......80.78
May 98......81.64
May 00......82.56
Aug 00......82.66
Jul 97......82.86
Jan 99......82.96
Feb 99......83.45
Jun 96......84.54
Apr 96......84.67
Dec 98......84.98
Dec 97......85.21
Jul 95......85.25
Jun 00......85.71
Jul 96......85.86
Sep 98......85.86
Feb 95......86.00
Dec 99......86.11
Sep 96......86.46
Dec 95......86.77
Jun 95......86.87
Apr 95......87.46
Nov 99......87.60
Feb 98......87.66
Jan 00......88.01
Oct 99......88.33
Nov 95......88.62
May 97......88.68
Jan 96......89.65
Jan 98......90.03
Aug 96......90.34
Feb 97......90.55
Nov 97......90.66
May 95......90.86
Oct 95......91.42
Apr 00......91.55
Mar 95......91.73
Apr 97......91.75
Mar 99......91.90
Sep 99......91.94
Mar 98......92.32
Apr 98......92.91
Mar 00......93.05
Apr 99......93.34
Jul 98......93.43
Aug 99......93.54
May 99......93.87
Jun 98......94.39
Mar 96......94.61
Sep 95......95.28
Mar 97......95.47
Feb 96......95.58
Aug 95......95.71
Aug 97......96.25
Jul 99......96.25
Sep 97......96.26
Dec 96......96.33
Jun 97......96.54
Oct 96......96.96
May 96......97.29
Jan 95......98.16

And how do the months rate, 'volatilitywise'?.....

1. February.....84.68
2. November*......85.04
3. October*.....85.93
4. July.....87.41
5. June.....87.54
6. December*.....87.88
7. September.....88.03
8. January.....88.26
9. August.....88.86
10. May.....89.15
11. April.....90.28
12. March.....93.18

(Numbers are same percentages as above. Calculations based on 6 data points [1995-2000] except * where 2000 data is pending. If the presumptive Oct., 2000 data is included, October's average moves down to 83.09...moving that month to the top spot on this list.)
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