Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking Message Board

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Pastimes : Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking

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To: redfish who started this subject	8/30/2004 4:10:15 PM
From: redfish	of 26020

Dangerous hurricane Frances continues to be the big story in the north atlantic basin today. Hurricane Frances continues to move west 275 at 13 mph but I see it a bit more faster.It has gained some foward speed from the past days when it was moving more slowly.The hurricane has becomed more organized this morning and when the recon plane goes in to collect data they will find a bit stronger hurricane.Outflow is fair to excellent in all quadrants and convection has expanded a bit more to all sides.We can see a cat 4 hurricane again in a couple of days or earlier if it gets excellent enviroment conditions. About the track Frances has moved south of the subtropical ridge westward.It will brush the northern leeward islands,the virgin islands and Puerto Rico.However tropical storm force winds will be felt in those islands as the radio profile of those winds has expanded to 140 miles from the center.Hurricane forece winds will remain offshore however a little deviation to the left may bring hurricane conditions to the islands.About the long range track the ridge may break a little in the comming days allowing for a more westnorthwest track towards the Bahama islands.There is too much uncertainty now about the very long range possibilities but I wont venture that far out to see what synoptic pattern develops in comming days. All interests from the Gulf coast if it takes the southern track SE Florida coast to all the way up to New England must continue to monitor the track of Frances in the comming days. Tropical storm Hermine is moving northnorthwest and will weaken shortly as it encounters cooler waters. A very well organized tropical wave located east of the Cape Verde islands is moving westnorthwwest and a tropical depression may be forming and advisorys may be issued later this afternoon. This product is not official,The official source is the National Hurricane Center. Note: I made this update in the middle of preparations in my apartment. Forecaster=Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) storm2k.org

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