YOu make some good points, but let's look at them from another perspective. I agree with why managers buy new technology (i.e. must show real benefits). Not every application is a candidate for US, anymore than every person is a candidate for a new Porsche. Some people must have mini-vans, to haul around 3 kids, groceries, and the family dog. Some people just don't need a car that goes 150 MPH, and some people just won't spend the money, even if they could afford it.
Regarding price: that's what discount schedules are for. You start with a base price of say $3,500/seat. Probably, for 200 seats, it would go down to 50% of this number. SO, the cost isn't what you think. Also, companies make deals to win deals. They use some common sense here. Besides, the target customer isn't a 100 MM company - it's the billion dollar Fortune 1000, financial services, utility or government enterprise, of which there are thousands worldwide.
I also, like you, doubt any manager would rework an existing application just for the sake of incorporate new technology. US will be incorporated in new applications (there are many started everyday through the world), or in old applications where there was a deliberate and specific to upgrade already. In the target customer base, even if you talk about just one new application per year, you are talking about thousands of potential customers.
I am on the board of a software consulting firm that has a large financial services firm as a customer. In 1995, they started 35 major new applications. In fact, it so happens that they are an IFMX customer. I don't know what the 1997 plans are, but their IT department has been getting bigger, not smaller. So, my example of just one per customer could easily be a lot more. I don't think there's any practical constraint of opportunity or available market.
I also agree with you that the object-oriented market has been limited to this point. But, that's not how US is positioned or targeted. OOP has been targeted to real techies. US is positioned as providing a solution and a capability. The OOP products, even ODBMS, have come from relatively small, unproven companies, with limited integration strategies. US comes from a big, stable company, with huge resources of support, consulting, etc, in comparison. IFMX has a huge installed base - companies that already know and trust their relationship with IFMX. This alone is very different from prior ODBMS attempts at penetrating the IT market.
Yes, many existing ORCL customers will wait for ORCL to release a similar product. Such customers are ORCL shops. But, IFMX can make good inroads into the ORCL installed base, because not every ORCL customer can afford to wait for the unknown, especially with the ORCL track record of being late. IFMX will win new competitive deals, they will sell additional product into existing IFMX customers, and will really chew into SYBS customers. This could easily double the size of IFMX. |
