US, Britain want Schroeder out
Peter Wilson, Europe correspondent
September 17, 2005
A SENIOR European Union official took the unusual step yesterday of saying publicly what US President George W.Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair have said only privately: that they hope German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder is voted out of office tomorrow.
The EU's powerful competition commissioner, Neelie Kroes, said she wanted to see conservative opposition leader Angela Merkel elected as chancellor, treading into domestic political turf that foreign politicians usually avoid.
Ms Kroes, a former Dutch politician and businesswoman, said she preferred Ms Merkel because she was a woman and Europe needed more female leaders.
The US administration's preference is driven by its belief that it would have less-prickly ties with Berlin under a new regime, while Britain hopes a change might speed up EU reforms, including cuts to farm subsidies.
Ms Merkel is the frontrunner to replace Mr Schroeder after seven years of high unemployment under the Social Democrat leader but the latest poll trends suggest she might be forced to rule over a "grand coalition" with Mr Schroeder's party.
An Allensbach Institute poll conducted from September 4-12, and published on Wednesday, was the last major poll expected before tomorrow's ballot and it gave Ms Merkel's preferred conservative coalition 48.7per cent support, with the trend heading away from the conservatives.
Support of about 48.5per cent is needed to elect a new chancellor, and the prospect of a grand coalition has weakened German stocks because of fears that such a government would achieve little of the economic reform needed to create jobs.
Another option is that an indecisive result could trigger a second national election, sparking months of uncertainty in Europe's biggest economy.
Mr Bush showed his feelings about the German vote in July when he spent 45 minutes with Ms Merkel's foreign policy adviser, Wolfgang Schaeuble -- a diplomatic slap at Mr Schroeder, who has tangled with Washington over the Iraq war and a string of other issues.
Mr Schroeder, who was re-elected in 2002 partially because of his defiance of Mr Bush over Iraq, even tried to milk the German public's dislike for Mr Bush during the latest campaign by criticising Washington's poor handling of the New Orleans floods as a failure brought about by small government and poor investment in infrastructure.
Ms Merkel, on the other hand, has promised to improve ties with the US, while still refusing to send troops to Iraq.
Australian farmers would join Mr Blair in hoping that the election would break the partnership between Mr Schroeder and French President Jacques Chirac that has long propped up farm subsidies and delayed many EU reforms.
Some analysts warn that such reform would be slow even under Ms Merkel, because of resistance within her own conservative party. However, the push for change could accelerate if Mr Chirac is also eventually replaced by the more liberal-minded Nicolas Sarkozy.
Foreign governments that would clearly prefer to see Mr Schroeder re-elected include Turkey, Russia and France.
The Turkish Government is furious Ms Merkel has vowed to block Turkish entry to the EU, a move that Mr Schroeder's Foreign Minister, Joschka Fischer, derided yesterday as "dangerously blind and irresponsible".
"We must have every interest in moving forward the comprehensive process of modernisation and the firm anchoring of Turkey in the West," he said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has a close relationship with Mr Schroeder, who recently adopted a Russian baby.
Ms Merkel is much more wary of Moscow, because of her experience living in Soviet-dominated East Germany.
She has vowed to be more critical of authoritarian trends in Moscow and to show more solidarity with Poland and other new EU member states in central and eastern Europe to counter Russian influence in countries such as Ukraine and Belarus.
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