Economy No Longer Political Selling Point
Friday, March 29, 2002
WASHINGTON — Any hopes Democrats had of riding a wave of economic worries to victory in the 2002 congressional elections are fading as consumer confidence rises.
Democrats still think a number of pocketbook issues, combined with rising budget deficits and underlying economic weaknesses, could be a potent combination, but they face a tougher job making that case to voters.
Democrats have a one-seat edge in the Senate and need to pick up six to take control of the House.
"If you're in recession, the story tells itself," said Will Marshall, president of the Progressive Policy Institute, a think tank linked to the centrist Democratic Leadership Council. "This is a more ambiguous situation."
But he said political perception often lags behind reality.
"Right now, President Bush is not paying a big price for the weakness of the economy," said Marshall, who helped oversee a critical report just issued on the Bush administration's economic policy. "With patience and persistence, Democrats have a real opportunity to make the case that this administration is mismanaging the nation's economy."
Marshall said the economic formula of the 1990s "worked spectacularly well -- a combination of fiscal discipline, trade and investment in the economy's capacity to innovate." He said Bush's refusal to back off tax cuts as a huge surplus melted away has undone that formula.
The public might not be in a mood to listen.
Consumer confidence spiked in March in both the Consumer Confidence index, done by the New York-based Conference Board, and in an ABC News-Money Magazine poll. Republicans point to growing confidence as a sign the president's efforts to stimulate the economy are working.
"What Republicans have been focused on," said Jim Dyke, a spokesman for the Republican National Committee, "is continuing to stimulate the economy so that those who want a job can find a job."
Dyke said Democrats will have to do more than criticize Bush. "You have to have a positive plan, not just attack," he said.
The president has a plan that strengthens national security and protects homeland security while creating jobs and protecting Social Security, said RNC deputy chairman Jack Oliver. Republicans, he said, are working to pass that agenda, "and if it doesn't pass, come November the American people will be asking Democrats why."
The public's growing economic confidence is in its early stages, with lingering doubts about the nation's job market. A March poll by the Pew Research Center showed that by a margin of more than 2-to-1, people think the nation is losing ground in creating good-paying jobs.
Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center, said, "The question remains whether the public will feel economic improvement in their own lives, especially with regard to jobs."
Those kind of reservations give Democrats hope that the economy will remain a potent campaign issue.
Terry McAuliffe, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, said voters are interested in more than national statistics about economic growth.
"The issues that will drive this year's election," McAuliffe said, "are pocketbook issues like health care, prescription drugs, retirement security and pension protection."
Increased public confidence in the economy could provide opportunities for Democrats to argue for more investment in programs like health insurance, prescription drugs and Social Security, said Celinda Lake, a Democratic consultant. People aren't blaming Bush for the economy but might have had he not addressed the nation's economic woes publicly, Lake said. "But he was never going to make his dad's mistake," she said.
Former President Bush lost the public's support in 1992 amid perceptions of economic troubles despite huge approval of his handling of the 1990-1991 Persian Gulf crisis.
Rutgers University political scientist Ross Baker said Democrats probably have to diversify their strategy. "Democrats will have to cobble together a whole bunch of other things in the absence of a weak economy," Baker said.
He said Democrats would have an easier time "picking up seats in a bad economy. But to be able to pick up seats when the economy is on the mend takes a great deal more skill -- and luck."
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