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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum

MU 239.40

-0.4%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Richard Russell who wrote (25160)	12/13/1997 12:35:00 PM
From: DavidG	Read Replies (2) of 53903

Richard, Mike and Skeeter: You totally misinterpret my comments and constantly misunderstand the facts that are presented to all of us by MICRON and analysts. If you break down the recent news you should undoubtedly better understand MU. First, Last quarter to (Q1) to be reported on or about 12/16.: Some people tried to tell you that MUs ASP will come in around $5,00 to $5.25 assuming a 50% split of 16mb DRAM to SDRAM. This may prove to be accurate. If you look at Smiths Page you will be able to obtain the weekly prices for last quarter on at least 3 DRAM products and SDRAM products. Although many had doubted MU could be at %50 it certainly looks real now. Also they increased capacity 10% over last quarter(4Q97).Although they did not mention the chip cost I still contend about $3.00 to $3.25 Their problems with a higher growth of 15% was limited by test deployment. This is understandable and you Forever Bears have to understand this, even though you never wanted to acknowledge this as good performance. Second, They stated by 3/98 that they will have resolved the testing issue and by 12/98 will be 100% SDRAM with .25Micron efficiency. This is also better news than any one bear would ever acknowledge. Third, The Koreans are in serious trouble, all they can do right now is dump 16mb and 64mb DRAM far below cost to raise cash to stay afloat...and most of that garbage(and it really is) will not find its way into the US but will continue to pressure World Spot prices which will affect MUs ability to sell outside US. Forth, MU is becoming a major high volume lowest cost producer of Memory chips. When other memory companies collapse and memory prices stablize and move up... MU margins will then skyrocket. I still see MU showing a Q1 profit of $.13 to .17 and MUEi contributing nothing...but I do think if MU and MUEI are smart they will take exhorbitant charges this quarter and next and be done with and move on from there. As far as MU going down to single digits are or bankrupt... well to put it politely ...you just have your heads up each others BUTTS!!!!! Good Luck Trading DavidG

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