BEST OF THE WEB TODAY
Schrödinger's Recession
By JAMES TARANTO
May 23, 2008
"When Economy Revives, How Will We Know?" asks the headline of an Associated Press dispatch by Jeannine Aversa1:
With any luck, the second half of this year will be better than the so-far rocky first half. The Federal Reserve chief hopes that is the case. So does President Bush.
For the rest of us mere mortals, it feels like the pain is getting worse.
When the economy begins to snap out of its funk, how will we know?
Like calling a recession, pinpointing the turnaround can be as much art as science. Economists agree there could be some strong signals to look for, however: A calmer stock market, an end to falling home prices and more jobs being created.
We're not there yet.
But as we've noted in the past, "mere mortal" Aversa was more certain when declaring there was a recession:
• February2: "In a shower of pink slips, U.S. employers cut jobs last month for the first time in more than four years, the starkest signal yet that the economy is grinding to a halt if it hasn't already toppled into recession."
• March3: "Dangerous cracks in the nation's job market are deepening. Employers slashed jobs by the largest amount in five years and hundreds of thousands of people dropped out of the labor force--ominous signs that the country is falling toward a recession or has already toppled into one."
• April4: "It's no longer a question of recession or not. Now it's how deep and how long."
As it turned out, the economy grew by 0.6% in the first quarter--an unimpressive performance, to be sure, but the usual definition of a recession is two successive quarters of shrinkage.
By this definition, however, the economy is like Schrödinger's cat: Its status is knowable only after the fact. You can't say for sure whether a recession is happening until seven months or so after it begins, when the GDP numbers for the second quarter in question are released. And no one knows that a recession has ended for four months or so, when the numbers show come out showing revived growth.
Aversa acknowledged this uncertainty deep down in the April dispatch:
Many analysts believe the economy shrank in the first three months of this year and could still be ebbing now. The government will release its estimate of first-quarter economic growth later this month. Under one rough rule, if the economy contracts for six straight months it is considered in a recession. When a determination is made by a panel of experts about when a recession has started and ended--it is usually done well after the fact.
Yet as the earlier quote shows, she was willing to disregard the uncertainty principle and declare a recession. So, how will the AP's readers know when the economy revives? One predictor may be the presence of a cat from Illinois in the White House.
One-Party State5
On Wednesday we wrote6 that if the ailing Sen. Ted Kennedy resigns or dies before his term ends, his seat will be filled by a special election, not a gubernatorial appointment. That is true under current law, but the Eagle-Tribune of North Andover, Mass., reports that one leader of the Great and General Court of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is making noises about changing the law:
The leader of the Massachusetts House says he will support giving Gov. Deval Patrick the power to appoint an interim successor to U.S. Sen. Edward Kennedy if that becomes necessary.
The Democratic-controlled Legislature stripped Republican Gov. Mitt Romney of that authority in 2004 because of fears he would name a Republican to replace U.S. Sen. John Kerry if he had been elected president. . . .
But House Speaker Salvatore DiMasi said yesterday if Kennedy should step aside or have to be replaced because of his brain tumor diagnosis, he'd be in favor of a gubernatorial appointment.
"That was a good political reason (then)," DiMasi said of taking the power away from Romney. "It's a good political reason to change it back."
Well, one cheer to DiMasi for acknowledging his partisan motivation rather than pretending to be standing for some high-minded procedural principle. If the Legislature goes ahead and changes the law, though, it's conceivable it could backfire--if, that is, Massachusettsans are sufficiently put off by the opportunism to take it out on Patrick's appointee when he does face the voters.
The Emotional Corporation?7
Tiffany Warren of Advertising Age speculates on the implications of Barack Obama's electoral success for corporate "diversity" programs:
At a recent panel discussion sponsored by The New York Times, Thomson Reuters and Time Inc., someone asked, "If Obama wins, do we lose?" By "we," the attendee meant those that lead the diversity efforts in corporate America. In other words, will a Barack Obama win create the false impression that America has gotten over its racial issues? And will that in turn give corporate America "permission" to trim or dismantle diversity programs?
It's a revealing comment, showing that some in the diversity industry view the perpetuation of the idea that America is a racist society as crucial to their marketing efforts. Warren herself, however, disagrees:
As Obama makes it closer to the highest office in the land, I grow cautious about the emotional transformation that could take place around the importance of diversity in the hearts of those responsible for leading efforts, those that bankroll them, those that benefit from them, and those that resent them. . . .
I believe that diversity programs are Obama-proof. They're not going away.
If anything, they have proven that Obama and other American success stories like him are products of their environments--ones which we have to continue to create in order for others to succeed.
We must admit, we're a little lost trying to follow Warren's explanation for her prediction that the diversity industry would survive an Obama presidency. It seems to us she doesn't say much more than that she would continue to view it as valuable or necessary.
That said, we agree with her prediction, but for entirely different reasons. The primary reason corporations institute "diversity" programs is not for emotional gratification but to preserve the bottom line by avoiding lawsuits. Obama judicial nominees would make the legal climate less friendly to corporations defending themselves against discrimination suits by minority plaintiffs, thereby strengthening the incentive to pursue "diversity." In the long run, the dissolution of racial barriers may render diversity consultants obsolete. In the short run, their jobs are safe.
Hagee vs. Wright8
John McCain has "rejected the months-old endorsement of Texas preacher John Hagee," the Associated Press reports, "after an audio recording surfaced in which the preacher said God sent Adolf Hitler to help Jews reach the promised land. McCain called the comment 'crazy and unacceptable.' " McCain also repudiated the support of another pastor, Rod Parsley, "an Ohio preacher who has sharply criticized Islam and called the religion inherently violent."
Supporters of Barack Obama had pointed to Hagee in an effort to defuse the controversy over Obama's relationship with Jeremiah "God Damn America" Wright, and McCain alluded to this in renouncing Hagee's endorsement:
McCain tried Thursday to draw a distinction between the Obama-Wright connection and his own relationships with Parsley and Hagee, saying Hagee was not his pastor.
"My church I attend is North Phoenix Baptist Church; my pastor and spiritual guide is Pastor Dan Yeary," McCain said. "I've never been to Pastor Hagee's church or Pastor Parsley's church. I didn't attend their church for 20 years. I'm not a member of their church."
We would draw another distinction here. Hagee's statement about Hitler strikes us as bizarre too. Surely an omniscient and benevolent God would have come up with a better way than Hitler of helping Jews get back to Israel. But this is in the realm of theology, something that does not worry us, a religious nonbeliever, overmuch. Politically, as far as we know, Hagee is strongly pro-Israel, a position with which we are comfortable.
Wright, by contrast, has political views that we find invidious, regardless of his claimed religious justification for them. If Obama's spiritual mentor were an atheist or a Muslim who said "Death to America" instead of a Christian who says "God damn America," it would bother us just as much.
That said, most Americans are religious believers, and it is probably wise for politicians to keep their distance from eccentric theologies. We certainly can't fault McCain for deciding to reject Hagee's support. But wait--does that mean Obama is now stuck with it?
Unreliable Sources9
Our item yesterday10 on Ruth Grossman--the 80-year-old Florida Jew who announced in the New York Times that she was keeping quiet about her support of Barack Obama, lest her neighbors disapprove--probably merited a new heading. "Unreliable Sources" doesn't really make sense in itself, but it is the opposite of "Reliable Sources," the heading we usually use for funny anonymous attributions.
Anyway, another example in the new genre comes from a Forbes story on discrimination against the adipose:
Don't hold yourself back, says Lynn McAfee, director of medical advocacy for The Council on Size & Weight Discrimination. McAfee, who weighs about 400 pounds, recalls how she was once asked to apply for a new position within the auto insurance company where she worked. Though it was a better job, McAfee didn't go for it because she knew it would involve a lot of cross-country flights.
"I knew as a large woman that I would need two seats," she says. "I was too embarrassed to even say that."
We guess her current job must not require much travel.
Tough Questioners
• "Speaking on a matter close to the heart, Sheryl Crow testified in front of a congressional hearing at the Rayburn Building in Washington DC on Wednesday (May 21)."--photo caption, Gossip Girls11, May 22
• "House Overrides Farm Bill Veto, but Democrats Eat Crow"--headline, Houston Chronicle12, May 21
We Blame Global Warming13
"Dawn of an Ice Age: Hockey's Hot Again!"--headline, MSNBC.com, May 23
A Bouncing Baby14
"Basketball: Nahariya Clinches Final Four Birth, J'Lem Out"--headline, Jerusalem Post, May 21
Now Museum, Now You Don't15
"Fury as Museum Bosses Cover Up Naked Egyptian Mummies to Protect 'Sensitivities' of Visitors"--headline, Daily Mail (London), May 21
They Roughed Him Up a Bit and Took His Wallet16
"Pope Benedict Attacked by Catholic Church's Most Senior Theologians"--headline, Daily Telegraph (London), May 22
'And We Demand Starring Roles in "The Pirates of Penzance" '17
"Police Contract Plan Calls for Bigger Savoy Presence"--headline, News-Gazette (Champaign-Urbana, Ill.), May 22
'It Was Doing the Backstroke,' Justices Rule18
"Top Court Overturns Dead Fly-in-Water Damage Claim"--headline, Associated Press, May 22
Lean Times for Those Who Flambé19
"Family Struggles to Put Food, Gas on the Table"--headline, Olathe (Kan.) News, May 20
News You Can Use
• "Officials Remind Holiday Drivers to Be Safe"--headline, Ada (Okla.) Evening News20, May 22
• "Video Game Consoles Are Toxic: Greenpeace"--headline, Reuters21, May 22
• "Bacteria Thrive in Inner Elbow; No Harm Done"--headline, New York Times22, May 23
Bottom Stories of the Day
• "Family's Ice Cream Binge to Be Retold"--headline, Lawrence (Kan.) Journal-World23, May 23
• "France Hit by National Strike"--headline, Agence France-Presse24, May 22
• "Nader to Call for Bush Impeachment in Front of White House"--headline, Hill25, May 22
• "Richard Dreyfuss in Talks to Play Cheney in 'W' "--headline, Reuters26, May 22
• "New Round of Corruptions Charges Hits Chicago"--headline, Chicago Sun-Times27, May 22
Seven-Digit Misery Index28
Think inflation is bad here? Check out this Associated Press dispatch from Harare, Zimbabwe:
Weary Zimbabweans are facing a new wave of price increases that will put many basic goods even further out of their reach: A loaf of bread now costs what 12 new cars did a decade ago.
Independent finance houses said in an assessment Tuesday that annual inflation rose this month to 1,063,572 percent based on prices of a basket of basic foodstuffs. Economic analysts say unless the rate of inflation is slowed, annual inflation will likely reach about 5 million percent by October.
As stores opened for business Wednesday, a small pack of locally produced coffee beans cost just short of 1 billion Zimbabwe dollars. A decade ago, that sum would have bought 60 new cars.
And fresh price rises were expected after the state Grain Marketing Board announced up to 25-fold increases in its prices to commercial millers for wheat and the corn meal staple.
If Zimbabwe dictator Robert Mugabe were clever, he would emphasize the "core inflation" rate--i.e., not count food and fuel. Things wouldn't look nearly as bad then.
(See all of today's editorials and op-eds, plus video commentary, on Opinion Journal29. Carol Muller helps compile Best of the Web Today. Thanks to John Williamson, Michael Segal, Bruce Goldman, Martin Dicker, Monty Krieger, Kyle Kyllan, Robert Bracht, Eli Bear, Israel Pickholtz, Gary Cruse, Sarah Cole, John Nernoff, Lin Anderson, Arlene Ross, Darin Nugent, Daniel Fertig, Marc Young, Ray Hendel and Evan Helfrich. If you have a tip, write us at opinionjournal@wsj.com30, and please include the URL.)
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