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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?
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To: Loring who wrote (25212)1/28/1999 11:46:00 PM
From: Paul Fiondella   of 42771
 
My take on price?

Answer: 22

I usually post that information over on ragingbull where QuadK provided an interesting view of Novl's recent performance vis-a-vi the NASDAQ.

NOVL is my only long position, and then in options not stock. In recent trading NOVL has built a base at 20. I'm looking to see the stock move up to 22 before I sell.

If revenues for Netware this quarter show the possibility of a sustained roll-out over the next few quarter we could get a break-out. Any bad news and we are toast. (Oh do I remember THOSE earnings reports.)

But there is also a market correction in here somewhere.

What did Greenspan say about internet stock investing --- that it was something like buying lottery tickets. The theory being that you can afford to lose the few bucks you spend on a ticket in order to get a very long shot at a big win. And then he said something about most internet companies not being around in awhile.

Well Greenspan announces rates next Tuesday and I'm not as optimistic as some talking heads that he isn't going to do the unexpected. It's obvious the Fed overshot its liquidity mark.

On a market correction I will probably buy more NOVL calls. But I'm only going to pay real money for them if I see something happen to secure NDS as an internet play. (This Netware run will end.)

If I were long the stock I'd buy out of the money puts. If you do that you can stay long forever.

I really think people should protect themselves against the inevitable correction.

I've said that so often people hate me for it. In any case you have to make up your own mind, and you only asked for price.

================

Still trying not to "grow up" but getting there anyway. <ggg>
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