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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs
SPY 683.03-0.1%Dec 9 4:00 PM EST

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To: dppl who wrote ()2/17/2000 6:20:00 PM
From: j g cordes   of 68842
 
True confession (or how to keep kicking oneself..)

This morning I had long calls on FNM expiring tomorrow. I assumed whatever Greenspan said would be friendly to my position because FNM had based and seemed to be strong going into Humphry Hawkins.

FNM gapped up in the morning. Just before he spoke the 55 calls were about 1. At 10:00 I had a good profit in the position and was thinking I should sell, then heard Greenspan begin on a radio in the other room, so I took my cup of coffee and went to listen.

A half hour later I returned to the computer and saw I had nothing, zippo... FNM had taken a tumble along with other financials.

My problem was in assuming that because the long bond was going in the right direction, my stock would hold or go up. Secondly I forgot the one adage that rings true tonight.. buy the rumor, sell the fact

In this case it was buy the Fed anticipation, sell before anyone knew exactly what he was going to say

Hope this helps someone... it took three good trades last week to equal this one half hour loss.
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