While no one will argue that Gilder was one of the initial lone wolves crying out in the wilderness about the future impact of fibre, his comments in the article that you provide ref QWST seem contrary to a recent article in BW (7 DEC). I have included a few paragraphs. Check out the full article at a library.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Ever since Internet traffic began to boom and the television business decided to go digital, computer companies and online services have been warning that tremendous increases in our ability to deliver information--voice, video, and data--will be needed. Worldwide demand just for Internet capacity is projected to surge 4,600% by 2002.
...
FANCY PRISMS. Fortunately, a stunning advance in fiber-optic technology is now pumping up the available capacity to levels that could revolutionize telecommunications. The technology is dubbed wavelength division multiplexing, or WDM. But you can think of it as a rainbow. With WDM, the light streaming through fibers consists of many colors--although all are in the invisible infrared spectrum. Each hue stretches from end to end of a glass strand and can carry its own stream of data. Thus, WDM makes it possible to greatly multiply the amount of data flowing through one fiber.
...
When Denver-based Qwest Communications International Inc. began laying 96-strand optical cables along railway lines in 1996, each fiber was designed to carry eight WDM channels. But the technology is advancing so fast that most sections have already been upgraded to 16 channels, doubling the initial capacity. If customers demand still more, Qwest can quickly double capacity again by adding more WDM lasers. And if that's still not enough, Qwest may be able to quadruple capacity with faster lasers.
------------------------------------------------------------
What I have known and what was only reinforced by this article is that QWEST has a flexible network that can increase capacity rapidly. Mr. Gilder's comment "Qwest doesn't have the business to require moving beyond the OC-192 capacity." would assume one supposes that QWST will not grow? That the demand for bandwith will be linear in the future rather than exponetial say over the next ten years at a minimum?
It would appear that QWST has more than "plans" for WDM they are using and increasing their throughput with WDM. And when the time comes they already have the second fiber tunnel built and its just a matter of laying down the next generation product what ever it may be. I think Mr. Gilder may be thinking a little short term in his recent piece, which is unfortunate since he is at his best when he is laying out a vision.
Regards.
|
