GUMM - Eliminate the Common Cold Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : GUMM - Eliminate the Common Cold

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To: Mad2 who wrote (2521)	4/20/2000 12:33:00 AM
From: Mike M	Read Replies (1) of 5582

Mad2, I don't think we need to compare QGLY with GUMM. The lab results for GUMM show it is considerably more effective. While the argument that "ultimately GUMM will be valued on its ability to generate earnings" is indisputable, you know that is only part of the story in the early going. There are a few things that have undermined GUMM's value in the short run, not the least of which is the current lawsuit. The uncertainty of a summary judgement in favor of QGLY(albeit not considered likely) has left some to wait for the ruling before committing to the stock. Market upheaval and margin calls no doubt contributed to the stock slide. The limited sales last quarter (it takes money to market effectively) and failure to penetrate the international market contribute to uncertainty at the present but we both know these things remains a wild card. Some of the clouds may be removed any time and result in a stream of sunshine for the stock near term. In this price area the stock would appear to have pretty limited down side risk. I don't subscribe to the theory that earnings will by themselves drive the stock in the near term. Unexpected news may well be a catalyst as well as any hint that the company's sales could be much improved in the future. Your technical analyses of the stock has been very good. I am not disputing that, however, we both know that technical analysis confounds the best of them at times. I do not argue the May/June scenario as the market anticipates the coming cold season and perhaps new product lines. There is currently much room in the chart for a nice run. It will be interesting to then see what support level holds. Revenue growth is imperative at this juncture, but earnings are not as important IMO. By next year, I might agree with your analysis were the stock at a significantly higher valuation.

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