Polarbear:
It is indeed gratifying to see Rangy coming back. It has certainly
been one of the better perfoming gold stocks in the past week or so.
The Rangold long-term chart is certainly sobering yet at the same time
gives us a lot of upside hope, and if you believe that the pog
is on its way back, looks like Rangy will be one of the best
performers.
You have certainly done your share to highlight the proper valuation
of this company.
With interest rates rising so sharply the past couple of weeks, it
appears as if the great downward movement of rates is over for the
time being. Undoubtedly, the unwinding of the yen-carry trade
is continuing apace, with the result that our t-bonds are being
converted back into yen.
This may bode well for the POG, as the gold-carry trade is a beast
that is similar to the yen-carry. If you look at the long term
charts of the POG and a gold stock index like say, the XAU, we are very close to a bullish move. It will take only a move to the
mid to high 290's on the pog to get this going, imo.
The charts on the gold-eagle site are quite helpful in illustrating
what I am referring to. Another way of looking at this is the
substantial overvaluation of the dow/stocks as compared to the golds.
With rates rising, it would appear to lessen the merits of the concept
that higher and higher PE's are justifiable.
Another interesting change has the been the strength of the Canadian
and Australian currencies, against the US Dollar. This is occurring
after long declines, and suggests an improved outlook for
commodity-based economies, further providing hope for the battered
base and precious metals.
Anyway, 1999 promises to be a watershed year for the gold stocks, and the way RANGY is behaving, it should be one of the best performers.
Regards
Dan
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