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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: Erik T who wrote (229)10/26/2000 1:21:09 PM
From: excardog   of 74559
 
Erik,

Thanks for your well reasoned response. Would it be too bold to summarize it to say AG has his hands full at this time?

Here is why I think he eases. Last week at a congressional hearing he stated that he felt the energy prices had yet to have any large inflationary effect. Everyone and I mean everyone out there believes the price of oil is going to fall next year. I tend to be the lone dissenter. But with this assumption in hand AG should be able to look over the energy complex and foresee a downward bias on that curve at least.

Gold is at, what is it 20 year lows here. Certainly that indicator does not suggest inflation.

I would agree with your premise that a recession in the first year of a presidency is a good thing for that president since he could lay blame on the prior administration and go full steam ahead with all the tools at his disposal to fire the economy back up headed toward his reelection campaign.

I'm actually starting to think that due to the internet and the vast amount of information available to folks like you and me that events like recessions are in fact speeded up so to speak and we may very well in a few months look back and decide we have been through one already. I am aware the we have not seen the typical negative GDP growth that is normally associated with such events but maybe in our new information age new bench marks need to be developed.

Certainly the 35% correction in the Nasdaq this year from high to low would have to be considered some sort of economic indicator would it not? The Dow is presently down for the year I believe? Lots of paper wealth has been diminished and rather quickly.

Starting to ramble a bit here but let me conclude by predicting a rate decrease either November or Q1 2001 (earlier if the market really crumbles) and really go out on a limb and predict Al Gore as our next president.(BTW I have no political biases to speak of)

These are all purely my own opinions and would respect any any all rebuttal.

Regards

Scott
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