And the winner is ...
We're not talking about the Democratic Primaries but Iraq. Andrew Sullivan thinks the Surge is working, here's what he says, courtesy of Classical Values, who has some additional thoughts. But the Sullivan quote is:
Petraeus deserves the lion's share of the credit; luck and time and the self-defeating nihilism of the Jihadists have helped. But Bush and McCain equally merit points for pursuing the surge, even though the metrics pointed to failure. Obama needs to capitalize on these gains, not dismiss them.
Sullivan forgot Odierno who is said to have contributed a great deal to the operational aspects of the surge. And he forgot a lot of others, who supported it when the conventional wisdom was that Iraq was lost. The Mudville Gazette, for example, exemplified the virtues of seeing a thing for what it is; based on a sound appreciation of actual events. But the important things in politics aren't the facts, but the fads. Classical Values is right on the money in predicting that when he's convinced which way the wind blows, Obama won't be far behind in "pivoting" on Iraq.
Now what about Obama? Boy, is the Good Judgement Man™ ever in trouble. He has been talking defeat in Iraq since forever. Whoops. McCain on the other hand has the distinction that, despite the unpopularity of his position, he was right. I predict a pivot - "I never knew how really vile those jihadis were. And I repudiate them for their obvious misjudgment. I have always been in favor of good relations with the Government of Iraq and no Republican is going to stand in the way of my achieving that goal. There are a number of companies in Chicago that would be excellent help in the effort to rebuild Iraq and they will have all my support." Aside to staff: " &#(*^@!~& Axelrod, where are my G-d Damn Tickets to Iraq?"
This prediction is very probably on the money. After all, if Obama can "pivot" on Jeremiah Wright, why not Iraq? Not only will victory in Iraq be underhandedly acknowledged by people like Obama, they will claim credit for it. The probably line of argument will be "Bush changed his strategy in response to our pressure", etc, etc.
Victory has many fathers. Defeat is an orphan. And history is infinitely malleable. One Bolshevik propagandist illustrated the peculiar relationship of facts to time when he replied to the question of "what happened yesterday?" with the answer that "we haven't decided yet."
I think the press has decided that al-Qaeda is not going to win in Iraq; the only question now is how to apportion the credit.
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