Joe, the farm business (my daddy was an Okie farmer kid) was bad in the 20's, and I'm sure there we lots of pockets of poverty away from the Industrial Centers, People waited in line for 5 months to get a job at Ford. Henry Ford ran into big trouble in 27' for a model change while chevy overtook and had to shut down the assembly line for a while, was very tough on Detroit till they got the Model A going for a great comeback. I did read that business really fell off dramatically in the last half of the year 29'. Same could happen here and all the elements are in place, and happening as we speak with intc phony positive #'s.
In 29' business/industry leaders were in the big bubble then-Yes? When your assets are blooming tulips, and it's the roaring 20's or 90's it's hard to notice the homeless person, the ghetto, the troubled family farmer or the small businessman put out of business by Walmart or Home Depot or Office Depot, or the blue collar worker or service worker who's real wages are only livable thru the clever balancing act of credit cards.
I've been reading some on 29', but admit I'm no expert. I'd appreciate any thoughts you could add. Have tried to draw parallels and I see many. The industrial revolution at a certain point created more products thru effciency, than it created jobs, and consumers who became car and gadget freaks were heavily extended on credit. Finally these two dynamics lead to the great oversupply and underdemand of products. I see the some of the same today, except for now we have somewhat full employment, what do you think?
By 3rd quarter will Intel be able to get away with smoke & mirrors? MSFT has no Sys upgrade until 98, so their business will probably be flat too.
Thanks for stopping by,
Bob |
