Political Wisdom: Is Michelle Obama Fair Game?
WSJ.COM
In Political Perceptions
Here's a summary of the smartest new political analysis on the Web:
by Gerald F. Seib and Sara Murray
Michelle Obama, wife of Sen. Barack Obama, already has proven to be a controversial figure in the 2008 campaign, and "the issue has shown no signs of going away," writes Robin Abcarian of the Los Angeles Times.
"In what could be seen as a test run for future attacks, the Tennessee Republican Party last month posted a Web video" mixing her remark about how her husband's candidacy is the first time she's been proud of her country with "declarations from average folks about how they've always been proud of their country." The flap over the Tennessee video, Abcarian writes, has unleashed "a torrent of opinion about whether Michelle Obama was 'fair game.' Most commentators agreed that the 44-year-old Harvard Law School graduate — a powerful surrogate for her husband who has made many high-profile solo appearances — should not be immune. But the harsh tone has bothered many, even some who don't support her spouse." Though Barack Obama has complained, "in the current climate — where sound bites are recycled endlessly and context is ignored in favor of impact — her more dour pronouncements have paved the way for brutal critiques."
Howard Fineman of MSNBC looks at Obama's policy proposals—as opposed to his personal style as a campaigner—and finds that "he has so far proven to be cautious and conventional." The latest evidence, Fineman writes, comes in a conference call with journalists about Obama's new economic plan: "If sweeping change is what Obama is all about, I didn't hear it on that call." Obama's stimulus package for the troubled economy, Fineman notes, consists of $50 billion for unemployment insurance for the states, $10 billion to prevent home foreclosures, a middle-class tax cut and a windfall profits tax for oil companies. "If the economy is heading as deep into the tank as some economists think (even, evidently, some of Obama's), then the plan he announced Monday is little more than a bandage," Fineman writes. "Deficit hawks will wonder how Obama would pay for it all, even at this level of action."
Despite two candidates who have marketed themselves as centrists that are able to reach across the aisle, the idea that 2008 could be a post-partisan year is pretty far-fetched, writesBrookings' Pietro S. Nivola. "A chasm continues to separate the parties on salient issues. For all the relatively moderate-sounding tenor of the campaigns so far, the substantive contrast between the candidates is deep and stark—arguably sharper than between contenders in the last two presidential elections." Here's one example: "Vice President Al Gore …flirted with populism in some of his rhetoric. But, unlike Obama, Gore never distanced himself from NAFTA." To be sure, a healthy dose of both the candidates' party-orthodox policies could be campaign rhetoric. But it's not as if Sen. John McCain can waffle again on the Bush tax cuts or Obama can decide he's not going to pull troops from Iraq immediately. Those positions have become central to each campaign.
Another sign that the end of polarization isn't in sight is that it's not just a candidate issue. It also exists in the electorate. "The share of genuinely conservative Democrats has dwindled, as has the share of liberal Republicans. Thus the two parties are more ideologically coherent than they were a generation ago…The great majority of voters now align their preferences consistently with the public philosophies of one side or the other."
Here's one thing we've been missing in the veepstakes: a discussion of which potential candidates would actually make good presidents if it came to that. In an analysis of whether Jim Webb should be vice president, Jerome Karabel, on The Huffington Post, takes a step back to look at the move from V.P. to President. "Of the 46 men who have served as Vice President, 14 — fully 30 percent — have gone on to become President. Nine of them succeeded directly to the presidency - four by assassination(Andrew Johnson, Chester Arthur, Theodore Roosevelt, Lyndon Johnson), four as a consequence of the president dying while in office (John Tyler, Millard Fillmore, Calvin Coolidge, Harry Truman); and one as a consequence of resignation (Gerald Ford). Four others were elected directly to the presidency (John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, Martin Van Buren, George Herbert Walker Bush), and one other (Nixon) was elected after an eight-year interval. Looked at it from a different angle, 9 of the 43 Presidents — over 20 percent — did not complete their term in office, thereby elevating their Vice President to the White House." |
