I'm going to post this again. I don't know if people caught this or not?
There are two recent DUV sales projections for this year (re: Nikon and SVGI)
techweb.cmp.com
"This year Nikon is expected to lead the industry in step-and-scan system sales, shooting past SVGL. According to some industry experts, Nikon will end up shipping about 150 systems -- nearly double the 80 that sources estimate SVGL -- will ship this year.
John J. Shamaly, vice president of marketing for Silicon Valley Group, SVGL's parent, won't disclose production levels this year, but said the company is ramping production as fast as possible and expects to deliver 200 step-and-scan systems in 1999. Logic chip makers are now being driven to scanners in order to get higher throughput for their
system-on-a-chip products. They can achieve this by patterning two die at a time on a wafer with a single exposure. DRAM producers too will likely be forced to step-and-scan for production of 1-gigabit chips. (Now we're hearing they need to move to .35 and below NOW to cut costs).
TAKEN FROM MORGAN STANLEY AGAIN ON 10/24...
Further more, we believe a bottom-up summation of stepper supplier DUV shipment forecasts for 1998 yields a solution in excess of 600 systems (ASML 150, Canon 150, Nikon 275-300, SVG 25-50 Micrascan III's)
So they think SVGI is going to go from 25-50 in 1998 to what?? SVGI is projected to do 200 units in 1999 (by other sources) - that's a hell of an increase from 1998 to 1999.
If Nikon is going to do 150 units by the end of 1997, will they do 275-300 in 1998? If they did, they'd lose A LARGE AMOUNT of market share when you factor in SVGI's growth rate comparison.
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If CYMER sold 327 units in the 9 months of 1997 and
ASM is 25% (82 units)
Canon is 24% (78 units)
Nikon is 41% (134 units)
SVG is 4% (13 units)
other 6%? (20 units?)
and SVG expects to (SHIP) 80 this year and Nikon 150...
So far, SVG has sold approx. 13 units and Nikon 134 units.
That leaves (80 - 13 = 67 units) + (150 - 134 = 16 units) = 83 units.
What will ASM and Canon add to this total? 126 units last Q - 83 calculated so far = 43 units. We know Nikon has been the trouble spot. Could we say something like 30 units from ASM and 30 from Canon for a total of 143 units?
That's a rough example because their talking about units shipped not ordered from CYMER. If inventory was high, they wouldn't need to order a much etc..
Aloha |
