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Biotech / Medical : Cambridge Antibody Technology Group

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To: nigel bates who wrote (253)	4/18/2002 5:27:50 PM
From: keokalani'nui	Read Replies (2) of 625

Not all anti-TNF biologics are going to be $1b drugs. Enbrel is going to remain a formidable, entrenched treatment and I presume it will likely preserve its market with existing patients or suffer only slow erosion. Remicade looks to be very vulnerable to d2e7, however, but CDP870 is coming and if the nurse can lift the syringe one month dosing is going to be very attractive. $600m sounds like an optimistic assumption assuming a wildly successful drug not even yet approved. The science around anti-IL-12 in RA has not been dumbed down enough for me to be able to get a grip on it. I'll admit that this personal failure is systemic investor risk unique to me, not the investment. Gazillions of other Mabs, proteins and small mol chasing RA now; and would expect there to become a very fractured, patient-tailored (successive failure) standard of care for those that only affect one cytokine, a la kineret. And a long-term development project if its success depends on combination therapy. By practically nothing, I gave it $10m value. Could change quickly with news. Wilder (Motto: Right or wrong or uninformed, at least honest.)

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