Viktor,
At the risk of posting so much today that I bore everyone to tears, I can't tell if <<Is that really THAT good ?>> means not enough improvement on a quarter to quarter, more then you can visualize, or that I am just nuts.
But yep, my estimate is about 400% of what Q1 97 did or put another way, about a 300% increase over the $0.12 last Q1. This is mostly due to higher unit/week estimates and a much larger gross margins over last Q1. I'll be very happy with the lower end of $0.45 and with the $0.35 that is floating around. For that matter, I do not think I've heard a estimate yet that says "Radica is starting to grow grass under their feet". I think there is also a good case that Radica's accelerated growth phase will continue past 1998 and into 1999. It will be a longer phase then one would normally expect and began in late 1996-1997.
I feel that a large part of the current multiple is due to a "had such great growth in 1997 that they can't do it again in in 1998" attitude as well as "wait and see, going from best quarter Q4, to worst Q1 and Q2 so, best not own it in the first half". If any of the estimates on the board are close, I would hope to see re-thinking of where Radica is still going and a progression back to more reasonable multiples. Some disbelief may remain until Q2 reports due to this being the slowest Q in past years but again, this year Q1 holds a large part of CYN that has held Q2 back in past years.
It is mind boggling to view this stcok in this light and see it's price at this level. That is what makes me dizzy... I've yet to get the #'s correct so we will see in about three weeks. Still looking for $18-20 pre earnings release.
Wayne |
