Envoy is different from Ziva. Meanwhile, what does Santa see under the tree?....................
IDC Predicts Holiday Spending To Boost U.S. Home
Digital Products Market to $37.8 Billion
FRAMINGHAM, Mass., Nov. 18 /PRNewswire/ -- Will there be something digital
under the tree this holiday season? Maybe, but not likely, according to
International Data Corporation (IDC).
Heading into the holiday spending season and 1998, IDC expects the U.S.
market for home digital products will grow 19 percent by year-end to reach
$37.8 billion. However, much of this growth will stem from the continuing
demand for more developed videogame console and home PC hardware and software
products.
"Digital Santa is on his way, but he may not make it in time for this
year's holiday season," said William Zinsmeister, senior analyst of IDC's
Consumer Devices research program. "Market demand for newer digital products
such as DVD-movie players, NetTVs, and PC/TV convergence products is still
developing, and these segments will not amount to significant near-term
opportunities." The home sector continues to be dominated by analog products
and the digital revolution is a longer-term play.
Here are some trends IDC expects to see this holiday season and into 1998:
-- Home PCs/PC software -- With home PC shipments increasing by 16 percent
by year-end, the demand for PC software is increasing as well. IDC expects
more than 63 million pieces of PC games/entertainment software will be shipped
by the end of the year, an increase of 31 percent. This year will be the year
of sequels, such as Riven from Broderbund, Quake II from Activision, and
TombRaider II from Eidos.
-- Videogame Consoles -- 1997 marked the return of videogame consoles,
which represent the second-largest sector of home digitalproducts and services
hardware and software on a revenue basis. Marquee titles from Sony and
Nintendo, such as Mario CKart 64 and Final Fantasy VII, have sold more than
500,000 units each this year. Continued market demand for 32-bit Sony
PlayStation and 64-bit Nintendo 64 will drive the total videogame console
hardware and software market to almost $5.5 billion by year-end, up 32 percent
from the year-ago period. Expected 3rd-party software company winners include
Acclaim, Eidos, Electronic Arts, and Midway.
-- DBS systems -- As direct broadcast satellite vendors continue to attack
the 62 million cable household opportunity, IDC believes DBS household
penetration will increase over two points to almost seven percent by year-end.
Annual subscription revenues should nearly double to $2.9 billion as the
overall customer base increases.
-- DVD -- Only 200,000 DVD-Movie players have shipped year-to-date but
should grow moderately to just under 400,000 by year-end. Such performance
would be significant for a new mass-market platform rollout; this market holds
tremendous longer-term promise as the technology base and manufacturing mature
and as software sell-through and rental industries ramp-up production.
-- NetTVs -- IDC expects unit shipments of NetTVs will grow only to
265,000 by year-end. Despite low price points (sub-$300), consumer adoption
so far has been limited. However, IDC believes this category holds
significant potential if vendors pursue the cable TV business model and
television content can be better integrated with Internet content.
-- PC/TVs -- There likely won't be any PC/TVs under the tree this year.
This market will amount to less than 12,000 unit shipments by year-end. At
average prices around $5,000, the PC/TV product category is still a market
niche for high-income, early adopters.
-- Consumer online services -- U.S. consumer online services are expected
to grow 20 percent to $3.6B.
For additional information on IDC's Consumer Devices research program,
please contact Dara Queen at 508-935-4585 or via email
(dqueen@idcresearch.com).
About IDC
Headquartered in Framingham, Mass., International Data Corporation
provides IT market research and consulting to more than 3,900 high-technology
customers around the world. With a global network of 300 analysts in more
than 40 countries, IDC is the industry's most comprehensive resource on
worldwide IT markets, products, vendors, and geographies.
IDC/LINK, an IDC subsidiary, researches and analyzes the home computing
market, leading-edge technologies in telecommunications and new media, and the
convergence of computing and consumer electronics.
IDC's World Wide Web site (http://www.idc.com) contains additional company
information and recent news releases, and offers full-text searching of recent
research.
IDC is a division of International Data Group, the world's leading IT
media, research and exposition company.
SOURCE International Data Corporation
/CONTACT: Bill Zinsmeister, 508-935-4736, wzinsmeister@idcresearch.com or
Hillary DeMello, 508-935-4282, hdemello@idcresearch.com both of IDC/
/Company News On-Call: prnewswire.com or fax, 800-758-5804,
ext. 113987/
/Web site: idcresearch.com |
