Robry's weekly appears to be leading to a report of 90 or so which would neutral against the TDD, this would indicate the supply demand balance has shifted bullishly for 3 weeks.
Last year with higher production levels in USA and Canada and higher storage levels of 400 bcf more in USA and 50 bcf more in Canada everyone expected gas on gas competition as we headed towards full storage. Even so gas future price contract for November 2002 closed at ~ $4.25. I remember well the fear level on the boards of gas on gas competition and its effect on prices.
Even with the impact of hurricanes that impacted Q4 production we still hit 3,176 in storage by the end of October.
Even with 2 bcf excess supply, that is disappearing, I see us only hitting 3,000 on 11/1.
I see some gas fired peaking units running this week in the NE with the ambient temps at 70 F. I wonder if the blackout has this area spooked at they want more spinning reserves or maybe some coal plants never came back up. Coal plant activity is not easy to follow and Ute's are not going to advertise they need to buy replacement power.
Another factor that has my interest is area that the DOE does not survey. If the EIA could be off as much as it was on April 30, they could be off just as much now. I think the impact of economic use of unsurveyed salt dome storage would lead to their storage levels being overstated today. They started loading gas in March as prices dropped and had good incentives to withdraw in June-August and be ready to refill in September October.
In any event I am 40% margin loaded and no cash. Heavilly into PTEN ~$28 with margin. I have some 200% gains arriving from a condo sale in a week or two, so I hope things dont run up too soon. But I dont think all the buyers sitting on the fences will be waiting long because the story is very bullish.
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