Joe, IMO $1.5B is a done deal. 1Q=220, 2Q=330, 3Q=430, 4Q=550, TOT '96 = $1.5B. This is probably conservative. Based mostly on retail sales. Jaz will kick in a lot. Most of these estimates are based on sales without accountting for OEM contributions to sales. You can kind of do channel checks to get sense of retail sales, but no one can really estimate OEM sales (HWP,PB/NEC,ACER, IBM?).
I don't think this 5M production capacity is cast in stone. The product manager may not have been authorized to speculate on how production capacity could be increased, but if OEM sales are there I am sure they are going to do something about increasing production.
Insider selling doesn't really bother me, I would rather have it in the hands of institutions, rather than in the hands of insiders. Unless of course if the insider is either Dunn or Edwards. For the most part insiders are people who have little in terms of savings and may need to buy or upgrade housing and maybe send kids to school.
As for backlog and inventory, I would have to believe Kim Edwards when he says that it is now being managed by new hires in operations, whereas before they were scrambling to take orders and managing inventories in what must have been a chaotic situation.
The equation after the secondary has to change somewhat. With $175M, KE can now do somethings that he souldn't do before. As far as I am concerned, I am pretty confident about sales and IOMG operations, but I have absolutely no confidence in Wall Street behavior. |
