The future of high-speed Net hookups
Despite whiz-bang technologies inching over the horizon for home Internet access, today's workhorse - the dial-up analog modem now a standard feature in most computers - will remain in place for some years.
After 2000, though, look out. New York media researcher Jupiter Communications predicts a battle between cable-TV companies and telephone companies to provide high-speed home Net hookups.
Jupiter's forecast for each of today's Net access routes:
56K modems: As Internet services learn to pump still more data through conventional modems, the 56K modems that emerged this year will have a place in 65% of Internet homes by 2000.
The modems still won't be quite as fast as special ISDN telephone lines, but consumers will choose the modems' lower costs and ease of use.
Cable modems: Cable-TV companies already have a pipeline to 95% of U.S. homes, but cable Internet service is still in its infancy.
Jupiter predicts 7% of Net homes will have cable modems by 2000. But the number may explode in the following years, depending on how cable companies fare in the race with telephone companies.
ISDN: It's here now, and that may be the biggest advantage to the phone companies' digital lines.
ISDN may grow to reach 5% of the market by 2000, but will likely fall off in following years as faster technologies spread.
ADSL: If the experimental technology pans out, the phone companies' second-generation digital lines could rule the market.
ADSL promises to be simpler, faster and less expensive than ISDN. For most users, though, it's still several years away. Jupiter predicts only 3% of Net homes will have ADSL by 2000.
Satellite modems use technology proven by the mini-dishes that deliver video signals to a fast-growing number of homes. Maker Hughes Network Systems is rolling out a single dish that delivers Net service as well as video.
Net by satellite is a hybrid system, requiring a phone line to carry data and commands back from the user to the Internet. Even so, the dishes may do well in the next few years, especially in rural areas where other services may not reach.
By Dale Dallabrida, Wilmington News Journal |
