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Technology Stocks : Excel Communications
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To: Rob S. who wrote (2551)2/26/1998 12:27:00 PM
From: Rob S.   of 2806
 
The reason why the news release is significant is because migration of traffic to Excel's own network will provide greater capabilities to expand commercial service and eventually local access and, more importantly to immediate price moves, it will reduce costs and increase earnings substantially. Excel says that the migration is going better than expected and that they will probably be ahead of schedule in migrating traffic volume within the next couple of quarters. A major part of the reason for the pull-back of the previous few weeks was the impact of delays of the migration. Now that the migration is accelerated, it is time for some catch up on earnings.

The stock has probably already been effected by this news as IR has been saying this for the past month or so. As earnings expectations get confirmed, the stock will move. Excel said that they are comfortable about the current earnigns expectations of around $1.35 for the year. That should lead to a price of around 26 or so by the end of the year. A move higher than that will likely require a better than currently forecast showing in the commercial program. I think that is quite posible but also expect there to be a learning curve and momentum building to be accomplished before the program hits its stride.
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