PYONGYANG'S PROGRESS
NEW YORK POST
Editorial
February 13, 2007
The tentative deal announced yesterday to begin disarming North Korea's nuclear weapons program is indeed "a step forward," as described by chief U.S. negotiator Christopher Hill.
But just how big a step remains to be seen. History isn't encouraging.
Under the draft agreement now being reviewed by all governments in the six-party talks, North Korea would seal its main nuclear reactor and invite international inspections in return for imported fuel oil and electricity.
Here's the catch: The agreement does not cover nuclear weapons and nuclear-grade fuel that Pyongyang might already have stockpiled.
The turnover of any current weapons would only take place after yet another agreement is negotiated - and it's unclear if China, Russia and South Korea can be counted on to continue honoring the U.N. economic sanctions that brought Pyongyang to the negotiating table in the first place.
Each of those nations has good reason to fear a nuclear Pyongyang.
But where Japan, another party to the talks, reacted to North Korea's saber-rattling by rethinking its pacifist constitution, the other three have preferred the appeasement route.
That is to say, the policy favored by the Clinton administration when it sent former President Jimmy Carter to "negotiate" a 1994 agreement that actually increased the threat of war.
Under the Carter deal, Pyongyang got a nuclear reactor, fuel oil and $5 billion in economic help in return for promising to freeze its nuclear-weapons program.
Not until eight years later - and then only when confronted by the Bush administration's intelligence findings - did North Korea admit that it had never honored the agreement, but rather had violated its provisions from the get-go.
(That didn't stop Jimmy Carter, though, from publicly charging that it was Washington that violated the accord with its "belligerent attitude.")
So the need for continued vigilance - and painstaking guarantees that North Korea live up to any promises it makes - is paramount.
Still, yesterday's draft agreement - if it holds - is a vindication of the Bush administration's insistence on multilateral talks, rather than one-on-one negotiations with Pyongyang.
The president rightly recognized, as his critics did not, that the other nations involved all have a direct stake in the outcome - for they are the ones who would be immediately threatened by a nuclear-capable North Korea.
The agreement reportedly specifies "tight timelines for actions that are measured in months, not years" - especially for the first 60 days after its adoption.
If adhered to, it will be a victory for those, like Bush, who argue that multilateral diplomacy, combined with strong economic pressure, could yield results.
This is an important step, but make no mistake: There's a long road ahead before North Korea's nuclear threat is removed.
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