<<The only way the $40 billion figure makes any sense is if it is the size of the market over the lifetime of directory services products.>>
So you are calculating the size of the "lifetime of directory services products" on the historical sales in this market so far? Do you think this market might grow, and grow at a faster rate going forward?
If the need for secure, cross-platform, directory-based, INTERNETWORKING applications becomes pervasive over the next few years, (and quite a few posters on this board have described scenarios for these type apps), wouldn't NDS in effect become the "API" for secure, cross-platform, directory-based, INTERNETWORKING applications?
If this did happen, Novell's revenue would scale up very quickly. I'm still not convinced many Wall Street analysts understand what a robust directory means, and the majority of people still have a vision of the Internet as it exists currently, really an embryo of what it will be.
One has to be somewhat visionary to make big money investing. If you wait for the analysts or (quasi)pundits to validate you, you are too late. I think $40 billion would be a very conservative estimate for the directory-based internetworking market. IF Novell executes, they are going to be huge.
jww |
