This thread has some of the only rational cranial activity going on anywhere on the planet. The people here think independently and draw their own conclusions, something you might learn from. In case you hadn't done any research on the topic, you'll *NEVER* be informed by the analyst community that there's a recession coming. Since the market discounts the present consensus, if such a warning were issued, it wouldn't do you any good anyway. You have to think for yourself if you are going to avoid severe bear markets. Secular bears are born in the best of times, and end in the worst of times.
Interesting to see that you popped up on the CLOWN thread. Just looking for a little trouble? Or feeling a little pain with your JDSU? <g>
Sorry, I guess I shouldn't twist the knife.
My friendly caution to you: there have been many, many cycles in the history of this country. They all involved incredible new technologies: electricity, the automobile, aviation, rail, automation, computers. All proved hugely important to the future of the country. All generated the same hysteria that we've seen this cycle. And all attracted so much competition that the boom turned bust.
Your precious JDSU is priced for perfection. Even if *everything* goes right, you just barely justify the present price. And I think that's extremely unlikely, given that the upcoming recession will remove the ability and incentive for JDSU's customers' customers to buy more optical equipment. The marginal optical customers are already running out of money as projected revenue fails to materialize, and easy financing disappears.
The greatest surprise of 2001 will be a *down* quarter for the likes of CSCO, SCMR, NT, etc. And regarding the stock price - mutual fund outflows have just begun. All the idiots that ignored price and paid *way* too much for tech funds, chasing "easy money" in Q1, are now suffering. They *WILL* redeem their funds (especially Janus), as they have done 100% of the time. And JDSU is one of Janus' favorites.
It isn't that they're stupid - just that the market mechanisms that produce tops and bottoms guarantee that they will lose. The most likely scenario for the market is a *negative* return looking out 3-5 years. Ever hear of the concept of a secular bear market?
Dip buying works in bull markets. If you haven't noticed that you're in a bear market yet, you really shouldn't be trading stocks.
You can't say you haven't been warned. Now, I need to pick the price for resetting my JDSU short...
BC |
