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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated

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To: skinowski who wrote (256118)6/29/2008 8:30:21 PM
From: rich evans  Read Replies (1) of 793868
 
In my opinion you are only 1/2 right in your analyse. The futures contract would be a bet on the price of oil in the future as you state and their must be two sides of the bet and a zero sum outcome. But the price of the contract would depend on the price the willing sellers and willing buyers would agree on like the points on a football game. So the sellers of the contract may require quite a high price before agreeing thus the price of oil goes up. And the present spot cash price after the notice date would be the price for cash delivery. So if the seller of the futures contract wanted not to be at risk for the future delivery of oil at his agreed price, he could if oil was cheaper at the spot cash price buy the oil, store the oil for a fee, pay interest on money spent, and pay insurance. Hopefully these costs plus the spot present oil price he paid would be less then the future price someone agreed to pay him. So speculators could change the price of futures contracts if they cause demand for the price to be adjusted upwards to find a willing seller.
Rich
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