Political Wisdom: Obama's Emerging Iraq Problem
WSJ.COM
In Political Perceptions
Here's a summary of the smartest new political analysis on the Web:
by Sara Murray and Gerald F. Seib
Given the changes that have unfolded on the ground in Iraq, Sen. Barack Obama's rhetoric, and his plan for dealing with the problem, now seem "outdated and out of touch, and the nominee-apparent may have a political problem," writes George Packer of The New Yorker. Sounding a theme starting to emerge more broadly, Packer says that Obama's original pledge to start a "rapid withdrawal of American forces upon taking office" reflected "conventional thinking among Democrats and was guaranteed to play well with primary voters. But in the year and a half since then two improbable, though not unforeseeable, events have occurred: Obama has won the Democratic nomination, and Iraq, despite myriad crises, has begun to stabilize…
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Protesters stand near the Truman Memorial Building in Independence, Mo., Monday where Sen. Barack Obama spoke. Doubts are creeping up about the candidate
"In hindsight, it was a mistake—an understandable one, given the nature of the media and of Presidential politics today—for Obama to offer such a specific timetable." Now, says Packer, "the Iraqi government and Army have begun to show signs of functioning in less sectarian ways," and Obama's original plan, if implemented, could "revive the badly wounded Al Qaeda in Iraq, reenergize the Sunni insurgency, embolden Moqtada al-Sadr to recoup his militia's recent losses to the Iraqi Army, and return the central government to a state of collapse. The question is whether Obama will publicly change course before November."
Speaking of things military, The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder analyzes and justifies, to some extent, retired Gen. Wesley Clark's controversial remark that being shot down over Vietnam doesn't qualify Sen. John McCain to be president. "Aside from military command service (which was sort of Clark's point) or being a strong governor of a large and complex state, there really aren't any other bright line qualifications for being president," Ambinder writes. "Elections are as much about what the presidency is, and to that end, all of these qualifications service a particular view of what the presidency ought to be about. In that way, John McCain's military service, and especially his decision, as a POW, not to jump the line and walk out of prison when offered, is a piece of who the man is and tells us about the decisions he has made." Thus, Ambinder writes, McCain's behavior as a POW, rather than the fact he ended up as one, tells us about the man, much as Obama's "post-law school career choice" to pursue public-service law rather than a more lucrative post in a corporate law firm tells us a lot about him.
Turning to the financials of the presidential race, The New York Times' David Brooks takes a look at exactly where the Democrats — and Obama specifically — are getting most of their money. And while it's true that about 45% of Obama's money comes in donations of $200 or less, plenty of it is coming from employees of companies like Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers. "The real core of his financial support is something else, the rising class of information age analysts. Once, the wealthy were solidly Republican. But the information age rewards education with money. There are many smart high achievers who grew up in liberal suburbs around San Francisco, L.A. and New York, went to left-leaning universities like Harvard and Berkeley and took their values with them when they became investment bankers, doctors and litigators," Brooks writes.
"The trends are pretty clear: rising economic sectors tend to favor Democrats while declining economic sectors are more likely to favor Republicans. The Democratic Party (not just Obama) has huge fund-raising advantages among people who work in electronics, communications, law and the catchall category of finance, insurance and real estate," Brooks notes. "Republicans have the advantage in agribusiness, oil and gas and transportation. Which set of sectors do you think are going to grow most quickly in this century's service economy?" So what does this all mean if Obama is elected? "If the Democrats are elected, this highly educated class will have much more say over policy than during the campaign. Undecided voters sway campaigns, but in government, elites generally run things," he writes. "Once the Republicans are vanquished, I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for that capital gains tax hike or serious measures to expand unionization." |
