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Technology Stocks : LSI Corporation

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To: Andy M. who wrote (25638)7/24/2003 12:22:41 PM
From: E_K_S   of 25814
 
It appears that LSI took some large one time write downs ($0.43/share) this quarter to better structure the company's cash flow machine for this 24-36 month up cycle. The free flow cash flow is starting to look very good and should accelerate as revenues increase. They are working on 43% margins across all their "new" product lines. This is a vast improvement from earlier in the year.

There should be some resistance in the stock price in the near future as I believe there is a large chunk of convertible preferred that either will be converted into common shares or paid off by the company. I suspect LSI will use their large free flow cash flow to pay this off first. I will be keeping an eye on our CEO stock sales as this will be my first indication to lighten up on some of my shares. Remember he bought a large position in the $6's for his personal account and has a vested interest in seeing this recovery continue.

Don't feel too bad about selling early as I also lost 1/2 of my "cheap" shares with my hedging strategy. I did not think LSI would clean house so fast and had some stock called away in July. The key will be to hold long enough to sell our shares near the high in this cycle. The stock may not go to $60 like the last run but I think $30 is quite achievable.

The next few quarters will be important to watch as this will help confirm that the beginning of a new up swing is really in place. I would not be surprised to see a very slow growth phase at first and then accelerating higher from there. Therefore, looking out past the first half of 2005 and through Q1 of 2006 may be the time window where LSI will be hitting on all cylinders.

Good luck and let's hope this is the beginning of better things to come.

EKS
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