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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout

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From: SliderOnTheBlack10/3/2006 11:46:19 PM
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"The Smell of Fear"


If you're serious about rising to the top of the trading game... you've a had a rare window into the heart, the soul and the mind (and the puckered ass as well) of a speculator over the last 6 months.

From the rise & fall of Mother Rock and Amaranth...to the killing fields here of late among the commodity stock speculators.

If you are truly a serious student of the game...spend the next couple of weeks really digging, really studying... making notes on the mindset and the behavior of the permabulls since May. Go back and re-read the various commodity stock threads... study them like you're preparing for the Bar Exam.

Start a trading notebook if you don't already have one. Keep a separate "week at a glance" daytimer. Start clipping important articles from the Financial Times, the WSJ, IBD, Forbes, Barrons and make daily notes of all important market events and commentary. And most importantly -- keep weekly notes on investor sentiment.

Yes, it will take a lot of time...but, I guarantee you that it will be worth it.

Markets are very, very difficult to predict... but, people aren't.

People are actually very, very easy to predict.

Invest 65% of your effort studying people and only 35% of your effort studying markets. Become an expert on human behavior and psychology. Study all of the past market bubbles and manias. If you do this -- I guarantee you that you'll increase your trading returns at least 3x over the next few years.

If one day you become a master of market psychology & behavior... you'll really never have to make another single market prediction; as you'll make more money than you'll ever be able to spend -- simply by seizing the opportunities that those chasing the next popular delusion create.

MASSIVE volume and huge institutional dumping in commodity stocks today.

-- whodathunkit?

The Street.com captured the moment rather well today with this story lead:

'Smell of Fear' Hits Gold
thestreet.com

Of note: Gold stocks led the commodity indices down:

HUI - 6.67%
GLD - 3.45%
SLV - 5.47%
OSX - 4.41%
XNG - 2.64%

Remember:

It's about Time...Tape...and Causation.

And PS:

Remember Newton's Law of Speculation:



later,

SOTB
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