Primary Voters Reflect on Iowa and Reconsider
By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL - NYT
MANCHESTER, N.H., Jan. 21 — A week and a half ago, when Steve Wulff and his friends held up homemade "Kerry for President" signs, their effort was met with derision. "Drivers heckled me and a jogger shouted I was wasting my time," recalled Mr. Wulff, a 20-year-old volunteer.
But after Senator John Kerry's come-from-behind victory in the Iowa caucuses on Monday, an elated Mr. Wulff was in the campaign's headquarters late that night making a big yellow sign that read simply: "Thank You, Iowa."
Mr. Kerry's campaign is indeed grateful to Iowans these days because voters in New Hampshire are now taking a second look at him as they prepare to vote in their crucial primary on Tuesday. His campaign, like that of Senator John Edwards, was regarded as moribund, if not completely dead, before the Iowa vote. But both campaigns — particularly Mr. Kerry's — seem to be captivating voters throughout New Hampshire, prompting them to reconsider whether Howard Dean, the former governor of Vermont and long the leader in polls here, is the best choice among the Democrats.
In dozens of interviews the past two days, many New Hampshire voters who were formerly undecided or supporting Dr. Dean or other candidates say they have decided to support Senator Kerry. His strong showing in Iowa, they say, is leading them to believe that he could very well be the strongest opponent against President Bush in November.
Others say the renewed news media coverage of Mr. Kerry, as well as of the strong second-place finish by Mr. Edwards, has caused them to re-evaluate all the candidates, and many are liking what they see.
"I was wavering between Kerry and Clark, but now I think it will be Kerry for me," said William M. Cudmore, a student and reservist, who might logically have been seen as a supporter of Wesley K. Clark, a retired general. But as Mr. Cudmore browsed in a bookstore to avoid the cold, he said Mr. Kerry was "really picking up steam, and I like his stances on a lot of issues."
New Hampshire voters take pride in their independence, insisting that they have the first genuine primary because, unlike the Iowa caucuses, theirs is by direct vote. But in a year when the vast majority of Democrats here say in polls that defeating Mr. Bush is their first priority, they do not seem bothered that Iowa has pointed them toward a new candidate.
"I hate to follow the crowd," said Don Turnage, 57, a photographer from Concord who says he will now vote for Senator Kerry, "but Democrats need to get behind somebody who could win." Mr. Turnage said he had come to his decision about Mr. Kerry after focusing on him for the first time in a radio interview this week. He said that while he "really liked Howard Dean," he thought that Dr. Dean had little chance of winning a national election.
Opinion polls seem to reflect the shift. In mid-January, Dr. Dean was the clear favorite of New Hampshire voters, with Mr. Kerry polling a distant third place behind General Clark. Now multiple tracking polls show Dr. Dean and Mr. Kerry leading with General Clark slightly behind. Bill Shaheen, the New Hampshire state chairman of the Kerry campaign, who ran campaigns for Al Gore and Jimmy Carter here, said, "This is the latest-blooming rose I've ever seen."
It is not clear which other candidates will lose votes if Senator Kerry gains them, although some voters said that they had found Dr. Dean's poor performance in Iowa disappointing. Others said they were infuriated by his growling and defiant speech after the caucuses.
"I was a really strong supporter of Howard Dean, but I was completely turned off the way he yelled at the Iowa voters, and it really shook my confidence in him," said Lisa Dibrigida, a pediatrician, who was helping her children with homework at a Dunkin' Donuts in Bedford. She said the Iowa results had made her "want to take another look" at other candidates, particularly Senator Edwards. "For a lot of us, Iowa raised the issue of Howard Dean's electability," Dr. Dibrigida said.
Just two weeks ago, organizers of veterans for Senator Kerry said they had trouble filling buses for campaign events — and veterans are one of the strongest constituencies of the decorated war hero. A lunch in Bedford this month was a polite and sober affair, attended primarily by businessmen supporting other candidates, whose companies had paid for their tickets. In a room of 200, there was only one table of supporters.
But on Tuesday, Mr. Kerry's return to New Hampshire was riotous, and supporters have been packing every event since.
"This has given him a huge boost here," said Steven Shurtleff, a retired United States marshal and supporter who works at the Museum of New Hampshire History in Concord.
Even so, actual support is difficult to measure because of the quirky ways of the Democratic primary. In New Hampshire, Republicans outnumber Democrats, and independents outnumber both. And independents may vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary. So it is difficult to measure how many of the state's 260,000 independent (or "undeclared") voters care enough about the Democratic primary to vote. This is the first year since 1984 when the Republican Party is not holding a primary here because President Bush is unopposed. That alone could increase the number of independents choosing a Democratic nominee.
Some of the undeclared are people like Jason Marshall, a dock worker who voted for Mr. Bush in 2000 but is upset about the direction of the economy. He will vote for someone in the Democratic primary but said "it would probably be a last-minute decision."
According to polls, up to 20 percent of New Hampshire voters are undecided, and for them the drama in Iowa was a wake-up call.
"I have been kind of leaning towards Dean, but with so many candidates I've been very undecided, so now I'll be paying a lot more attention, and listening to what they are saying," said Erin Campbell, 27, a mother of two.
And in a state where people take voting seriously, it is clear that a lot of soul searching is going on. Megan MacMullin, an estate lawyer, said she had recently switched her support from Howard Dean to John Kerry, who she said, "has started doing a much better job of getting his message out."
But Jean Dowling, a retired dental receptionist from Merrimack, said she was more determined than ever to vote for Howard Dean.
"I'm sticking with him," Ms. Dowling said. "I liked his enthusiasm the other night even though everyone has been critical of it. I don't think John Kerry has enough spark, but in the end I'll vote for anyone other than George Bush." |
