james,
i do not know about that site. the problem is it is difficult to know where they stand now as the most recent info is always at least a few weeks old. same goes for the short interest. there have been many many institution buy messages reported every day on thompsons over the past 2-3 weeks.
i have been thinking about rmbs revenues and came up with this. rmbs fiscal year 2000 actually begins october 1, 1999. but
earnings posted in oct, nov, and dec will be for product sold in this q...july-sept.
if i am correct and i am quite certain i am, rdrams being sold now are reported as 1st q year 2000 earnings for rmbs. or to look at the year.
sales in: reported as income in actual rmbs fiscal q:
calendar year:
jul-sep 99 oct-dec 99 1st q 2000
oct-dec 99 jan-mar 2000 2nd q 2000
jan-mar 2000 apr-jun 2000 3rd q 2000
apr-jun 2000 jul-sep 2000 4th q 2000
this means the analysts are including sales for this month in rmbs 2000 earnings. this reasoning certainly explains a lot of discrepancies regarding earnings projections. rmbs essentially lags up to 6 months behind in reporting income on a calendar year basis. 3 months because of delay in collecting royalties and 3 months due to fiscal year starting 3 months before the calendar year.
interesting to note that zacks, as updated on jul 17, on that date rmbs had 3 buys and 2 strong buys with a share price of 113 and a pe of 387.
the consensus for 99 earnings is 0.29 tripling to 0.85 in 2000. year 2001, which for rmbs will actually begin with rdrams sold next june, is going to be a total blowout earnings wise with laptops and timna for low end coming on board as well as pixelvision's graphics card, sony pII, hdtv, etc. all of this will rollout 1st, 2nd, and 3rd q next calendar year. the earnings pump for 2001 begins next june which is when rdram sales will really be humming.
i always thought and often posted this is a 2002-2003 story. i no longer believe that. the timing of earnings reporting coupled with the scheduled product roll-out dates work very well in rmbs favor imo. things look awesome for rmbs fiscal year 2001 and better for rmbs fiscal 2002. in view of this, i am changing my timetable. i see rmbs as a grand slam homerun in 2001 with another grand slam in 2002.
i think stuart nailed it many months ago when he said this is a $500 stock in 2 years. which has now become 18 months. i see another quick double or better from there.
unclewest |
