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Technology Stocks : Ascend (ASND) descending?
ASND 213.290.0%Jan 2 9:30 AM EST
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To: fedhead who wrote (236)6/27/1996 8:44:00 AM
From: Deepak R. Ghosh   of 313
 
Anindo:

Here are all the EPS numbers for ASND:

Trailing 12 months EPS = $0.41, therefore trailing 12 mos PE = 126 (lowest
I have seen in the last 6 months)

2Q 1996: $0.19E vs $0.06 (217%)
3Q 1996: $0.21E vs $0.08 (163%, expect charges for NTSR which are not
included in this number)

FY 1995: 0.28A
FY 1996: 0.80E, FY96 PE = 64.68
FY 1997: 1.19E, FY97 PE = 43.48

Some other interesting numbers:

FY94 Rev = 39.30 million
FY95 Rev = 149.60 million (280% growth from FY 94)
FY96 Rev Est = 447.0 million (200% growth from FY 95)

This means that ASND is tripling in size every year and so is the
EPS. In the last nine quarters, ASND has always earned revenues which
has always been 200% more than they earned in the year ago quarter.

So for a company growing at over 200% every quarter and year, is a
forward FY96 PE of 65 and FY97 PE of 43 very unreasonable? What do
you think. Keep in mind that ASND's CFO has already said that
he is comfortable with rev estimates of $105-115 million this qtr. That
means that ASND has likely earned $115 million which will equate to
$0.21/share which is consistent with the previous growth rate.

Deepak

P.S. Ignore the EPS numbers that you see for most companies in the
quote servers on the web. Mostly they are incorrect. I have been
misinformed by these servers before.
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