NEWS SUMMARY
The Note would like to think that success in American politics is based to a large enough extent on substance that Howard Dean's 6-month run as the Democratic Party frontrunner couldn't be turned by one whooop-containing piece of video into the electoral equivalent of Pamela Ewing having dreamed the entire 9th season of "Dallas."
But the tracking poll trends and overwhelming Gang of 500 CW suggest that tonight's monster doubleheader — the debate at 8 ET and the Doctors Dean world exclusive first joint broadcast interview with Diane Sawyer at 10 ET on ABC News' Primetime — just might be the last chance for Howard-powered Howard to get back in the hunt.
The comparisons to Bill and Hill's post-Super Bowl "60 Minutes" interview in 1992 are as obvious as they are relevant. If Judith Steinberg can stand ("sit" actually) by her man in a way that recontextualizes him as a kindly New England doctor who wants to ride a grassroots wave to make fundamental change, perhaps Dean can turn this around. (Our crack technicians won't let a light fall of them, we promise.)
Sawyer will conduct the interview this afternoon in Vermont. Watch for excepts beginning on World News Tonight with Peter Jennings and on an ABC affiliate near you. Then see the whole thing on "Primetime" immediately following the debate.
The lead-in audience on WMUR out of the debate broadcast should allow the Deans to reach quite a few Granite State voters.
Of course, Dean is going to need a strong performance himself when he stands as part of the Surviving Seven (what Ken Mehlman and Jack Olvier think of as the new Seven Dwarfs … .) in the WMUR/ABC News/Union Leader/Fox News Channel event.
Go St. Anselm! (And go ABC: surely you can't help but notice how ABC News is bringing you every major political news development today!)
With Ambassador Moseley Braun's exit last week and Rep. Gephardt's departure from the field on Tuesday, this will be the first debate with a condensed field of seven: Kerry, Edwards, Dean, Clark, Lieberman, Kucinich, and Sharpton.
The 90-minute debate will air live on WMUR-TV and FOX News Channel beginning at 8:00 pm ET. Extended excerpts will air on a one-hour special edition of ABC News' Nightline at 11:35 pm ET. FOX News Radio, ABC News Radio and ABC News Live will also carry the debate live.
Fox News Channel's Brit Hume will serve as debate moderator in the opening portion of the debate. ABC News' Peter Jennings will moderate the latter portion of the debate and serve as the lead questioner on the panel that also includes WMUR-TV's Tom Griffith and John DiStaso of the Union Leader.
Although Team Kerry doesn't want anyone to know (sssssshhhhh!!!), if their guy plays error-free ball tonight and for less than a week, this nomination fight narrative might be more about a Kerry glide path than it is about a wide-open scramble.
And the current dynamics are playing to the advantage of Comeback Kerry. (As might an interview with … .tick, tick, tick, "60 Minutes" this Sunday.)
Dean himself — playing political analyst — said it best yesterday in explaining why no one has tried to rip the face off the new frontrunner — yet.
"The problem is when you go negative it drags you down," told an interviewer yesterday "Dick and I were running first and second and we ended up third and fourth. You've got to be very careful in a multi-candidate race."
(In fact, that wasn't Dean's only turn as a political analyst yesterday — he told USA Today in an interview, that while "most debates are not important … .'this one is. A lot of people are going to be really focused on it.'")
(In fact, Dean has already spent some time prepping for the debate, we are told, and has real, Dennett-Vogel-Buxton — certified debate prep time today!)
(In fact, the Bush folks must be shaking their heads at how much the Dean high command — on the record and on background — are talking about tactics, changes, strategy, and efforts to re-make the candidate. No one has spotted Naomi Wolf in Burlington — yet — but can you imagine George W. Bush or even an adviser of his saying (as Dean himself did in the same USA Today interview) this: "I might as well go back to being who I really am.")
(In fact, even in success, the Kerry campaign is no slouch in handing out that kind of process blind quote too!!)
Dean's advisers seem to agree with the candidate. |
