"Bob Walberg, Tech View
Bad news is coming, sell ahead of the bad news
Didn't we just go through that last earnings?
Earnings warning season is coming, unofficially kicks off mid June
OK, so long this week, short next, sounds like a plan...
Walberg is impressed how Nasdaq has held up
It didn't hold up, it rallied on the rate cuts and gave half back.
If Nasdaq can hold up above 2000, things should be bullish
Break of 2000 could send investors to sidelines.
Nasdaq could then fall to 1920-1880 before bottoming
What a crock, isn't that like saying if we go lower, then we go lower, and could even go lower then that, of course we might not, we might go higher, and if we do then we will go higher and then things will get better!!! dahh, what a pathetic joke analyst this guy is. Someone pays this guy for coming up with these magnificant market insights?
Expect a bounce this week, pre-earnings warnings. As usual, some companies will miss their own revised lowered numbers, but the majority of the bad news is now built into the markets and we move forward which is what stock prices have always represented. Velo and I were one of the first that I know of anywhere calling for NAZ 1800s way back when. I never said we would go lower then that but was not too surprised to see some overshoot dragging the numbers down to 1600's, brought about by a bit of panic selling but never did the grand capitulation I wanted.
Fast forward a few months and a rate cut or two later, and 2200 on Naz recently has been met with heavy resistance and this has been a safe number to short the Qs. Particularly as has been mentioned repeatedly below that we all anticipate more earning warnings again around the corner.
Though reading public investor sentiment is always a challenge, it is my expectations that we have seen the worst back in March, (spring and summer are never techs best seasons anyway) and we struggle through summer and rally into the fall with some increases in capex as much of the bloated inventory becomes obsolete anyway.
There are presently some overextended piggies MSCC, CCMP, IDTIs and many more. Pipe layers like JDSU, NT, and the CSCOs will NOT be the leaders next Q as the build out has been way over extended. However, some bright spots are the companies that handle and increase the data flow transmission, while supporting wider braodband initiatives, these will be strong. Though the push in consumer demand will not be Napster as previously expected, MP4 video streamer and G4 technology as well as wireless broadband will create certain degrees of pocket demand. Another cycle of money flows should return to the oil/gas as prices historically rise into the summer. Expect retail to become increasingly sluggish as SSS weaken until back to school swings back again late fall and they clearout their own inventories.
Biotechs in vogue again, watch XOMA for a pop, gaming CRYP on the watch list Friday has more legs and room to run.
But then what do I know, compared to Mr. Walberg, I'm only a fish....
Trade smart,
Sharck |
