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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (258757)9/3/2003 9:38:32 PM
From: KM  Read Replies (2) of 436258
 
Check this one. From Traders Talk message boards.

From: danbear
Subject: Never Again
Views: 365
Date: 9/2/2003 11:40 PM

Well I did it again. I got myself all BEARED UP right in the middle of a massive upside breakout. Back in July I swore to myself that I would never let the ideas of bearish gurus and skeptics get me fighting the trend again, but sure enough I did! Being bearish just feels so right, but Mr. market is screaming that it is dead wrong. How many times do I have to get hammered over the head before I get some sense knocked into me.

This is it. Time to face the fact that this bull is going to keep on surprising on the upside. So I make this vow on this public forum...

Here are the things I will NEVER do again:

1) Listen to bearish Gurus and skeptics of this rally (including myself)

2) Fight the tape (ie. no top picking in a strong uptrend)

3) Look at the VIX, II, COT report, Put/Call ratios, Insider Selling, E-WAVE COUNTS blah blah blah in order to make trading decisions. All a bunch of useless crap that has lost me boatloads of money this year. I wish I had never heard of these indicators.

4) Bet against Alan Greenspan

5) Make bold forecasts about market direction on this board (as I always seem to end up with egg on my face).

Here are the things I WILL do:

1) Follow the trend

2) Watch only breadth, volume, and most importantly price

3) Wait for the trend to decisively turn before initiating countertrend positions and even then use tight stops when trading against the trend

4) Be patient and flexible

5) Trade off the longer-term trend (ie. weekly and monthly) and stop being shaken out by hourly and daily noise

So in the spirit of these resolutions my prediction is:

I DONT KNOW WHERE THE MARKET IS GOING.
I DONT KNOW WHEN OR IF IT WILL EVER TOP AND I DONT CARE.
I AM GOING LONG BECAUSE THE TREND IS UP AND INTERNALS ARE STRONG.
I WILL ONLY EXIT THIS POSITION WHEN AND IF THE LONG-TERM TREND TURNS BACK DOWN CONFIRMED BY DETERIORATING INTERNALS.

That's it. No more analysis required. I just wish I'd have come to my senses sooner...
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