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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)
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From: mopgcw1/30/2010 11:57:25 AM
   of 25960
 
CS: Cymer Inc. (CYMI) OUTPERFORM S. Kumar
CP: US$ 33.24 TP: US$ 40 CAP: US$ 958.9m

F4Q09 (Dec) Qtr - Review, Raising Estimates and Lowering Target Price to $40 (from $49)

! F4Q09 results. CYMI reported F4Q09 Rev/EPS of $96.4mm and 40c vs. CS at 92.3mm /33c and cons at $96mm/36c.
Company had guided F4Q09 revenues flat q/q at ~$92mm. CYMI shipped 13 units (all immersion units) during the qtr.
Bookings of $101.2mm (up 2% q/q) consisted of immersion bookings (72%) for technology buys and KrF bookings (28%)
for capacity expansion. Company installed 31 light sources at chip makers up from 14 units in F3Q. Avg ASP of light
sources was $1.9mm (up 5.5% q/q).

! F1Q guidance. CYMI guided F1Q Revs up 10% q/q (~$106mm) and GM at 47%-49%. We were estimating Rev/EPS at
$96mm/38c and consensus at $105mm/47c. Company expects ASP to be down ~15.7% q/q to ~$1.6mm due to a greater
mix of KrF shipments.

! Key Points. Positives. (i) Pulse utilization rate remains strong. Company indicated pulse utilization for Dec qtr was ~87% of
prior peak and expects utilization to remain at these levels into March qtr, positive for non system revenues (ii) ArF
Immersion potential. Company shipped 13 ArFi laser units in Dec, representing an annualized run rate of ~50 units, well
below CY10 TAM of 100 units. (iii) TCZ revenues in 2Q. Company expects to revenue first TCZ shipment (C3Q09) in the
Jun qtr. Negatives. (i) Operating income for Mar qtr expected to be slightly down despite 10% topline growth as company
opex expected to increase ~17% q/q.

! Estimates and Valuation. We are revising our CY10 Rev/ EPS from $471.2mm/$2.44 to $497.6mm/$2.63. We are leaving
our 2011 EPS estimate unchanged at $3.26. Although we are lowering our PT from $49 to $40 (representing ~15x CY10
EPS), we reiterate our Outperform rating due to strong non-system revs and our positive view on secular growth in
lithography.
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