Hey Robert!
Bright green flame participants as of the close 1/11:
ABF AIRBORNE INC COM
ABT ABBOTT LABS COM
ABX BARRICK GOLD CORP COM
ADI ANALOG DEVICES INC COM
AGE EDWARDS A G INC COM
AHP AMERICAN HOME PRODS CORP COM
ALK ALASKA AIR GROUP INC COM
AMSWA AMERICAN SOFTWARE INC CL A
AMTD AMERITRADE HLDG CORP CL A
AMZN AMAZON COM INC COM
AVY AVERY DENNISON CORP COM
AXP AMERICAN EXPRESS CO COM
BBBY BED BATH & BEYOND INC COM
BBY BEST BUY INC COM
BMC BMC SOFTWARE INC COM
BSC BEAR STEARNS COS INC COM
BUD ANHEUSER BUSCH COS INC COM
BWA BORG WARNER INC COM
CA COMPUTER ASSOCIATE INTL INC COM
CAT CATERPILLAR INC COM
CC CIRCUIT CITY STORES INC COM
CCL CARNIVAL CORP COM
CCU CLEAR CHANNEL COMMUNICATIONS COM
CD CENDANT CORP COM
CDWC CDW COMPUTER CTRS INC COM
CEFT CONCORD EFS INC COM
COHU COHU INC COM
COMS 3COM CORP COM
COST COSTCO WHSL CORP NEW COM
CPWR COMPUWARE CORP COM
CREAF CREATIVE TECHNOLOGY LTD ORD
CSCO CISCO SYS INC COM
CSX CSX CORP COM
DD DU PONT E I DE NEMOURS & CO COM
DELL DELL COMPUTER CORP COM
DIA DIAMONDS TR UNIT SER 1
DISH ECHOSTAR COMMUN CORP NEW CL A
ESST ESS TECHNOLOGY INC COM
ET E TRADE GROUP INC COM
EY ETHYL CORP COM
FDX FEDEX CORP COM
FRX FOREST LABS INC COM
GPT GREENPOINT FINL CORP COM
HD HOME DEPOT INC COM
HLT HILTON HOTELS CORP COM
HSY HERSHEY FOODS CORP COM
IGT INTERNATIONAL GAME TECH COM
IM INGRAM MICRO INC CL A
IMNX IMMUNEX CORP NEW COM
INTC INTEL CORP COM
IP INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO COM
LSCC LATTICE SEMICONDUCTOR CORP COM
LTD LIMITED INC COM
LTR LOEWS CORP COM
MDT MEDTRONIC INC COM
MSFT MICROSOFT CORP COM
MXO MAXTOR CORP COM NEW
NOVL NOVELL INC COM
NSC NORFOLK SOUTHN CORP COM
OHP OXFORD HEALTH PLANS INC COM
OMC OMNICOM GROUP INC COM
ORCL ORACLE CORP COM
PPE PARK PL ENTMT CORP COM
PSFT PEOPLESOFT INC COM
S SEARS ROEBUCK & CO COM
SBUX STARBUCKS CORP COM
SCH SCHWAB CHARLES CORP NEW COM
SE 7-ELEVEN INC COM NEW
SEBL SIEBEL SYS INC COM
SPY SPDR TR UNIT SER 1
SYY SYSCO CORP COM
T AT&T CORP COM
TECD TECH DATA CORP COM
TGT TARGET CORP COM
TRAC TRACK DATA CORP COM
VIA B VIACOM INC CL B
WDC WESTERN DIGITAL CORP COM
WM WASHINGTON MUT INC COM
WMI WASTE MGMT INC DEL COM
X UNITED STATES STL CORP NEW COM
XRX XEROX CORP COM
YHOO YAHOO INC COM
COHU has been in this category consistently since 11/23, INTC since 12/10. AMAT was in the list Monday, Wednesday and Thursday which could be signaling a breakout as it has been gradually rising in the rated trends since 11/12.
AMAT: (1st position=MACD rating, 2nd = 50 day SMA direction, 3rd=200 day SMA direction)
11/09/01 ---
11/12/01 +--
11/13/01 +--
11/14/01 +--
11/15/01 +--
11/16/01 +--
11/19/01 +--
11/20/01 +--
11/21/01 +--
11/23/01 +--
11/26/01 ++-
11/27/01 ++-
11/28/01 ++-
11/29/01 ++-
11/30/01 ++-
12/03/01 ++-
12/04/01 +++
12/05/01 ++-
12/06/01 ++-
12/07/01 ++-
12/10/01 ++-
12/11/01 ++-
12/12/01 ++-
12/13/01 ++-
12/14/01 ++-
12/17/01 ++-
12/18/01 +++
12/19/01 ++-
12/20/01 ++-
12/21/01 ++-
12/24/01 ++-
12/26/01 ++-
12/27/01 ++-
12/28/01 ++-
12/31/01 ++-
01/02/02 ++-
01/03/02 ++-
01/04/02 ++-
01/07/02 +++
01/08/02 ++-
01/09/02 +++
01/10/02 +++
01/11/02 ++-
The market's spike up in volatility was because the market was coming off a very weak holiday week. 5 day and 25 day average volatility is, in fact, trending down on historically low levels. I believe the sellers resolve is weak and the buyers are determining the direction of the market, buying and waiting for pullbacks to buy again. I don't see volatility going much lower. I would like to see a sideways pattern as, has recent history has proven, when the 25 day line makes a definite upward trend, the market heads south.
I have actually set up a short term buy/sell indicator for just that occasion and it has proven to be a fairly good. If the 5 day line is trending up faster than the 25 day line, it is considered a sell signal. Three sell signals in a row is what I call a definite sell for short term investments. The opposite would be applied when the 5 day trend is going down faster than the 25 day, a buy signal.
This system came up three sells in a row after trading on Friday 1/4. So "IF" I would have anticipated this signal and sold short term investments that Friday afternoon, or better yet, the open the following Monday, I would have faired off better this week. This past Thursday and Friday came up with buy signals. One more to go!!!
I'd like to see this system proven wrong and have a sustained up market on rising volatility. Can it happen??
Buddy |
