BB I was not even in the market until 2000.
I must admit I learned many many nasty lessons in 2000 and 2001.
Of all the stupid times to enter the market, I picked the stupidest.
I can not criticize Tice for being bearish early.
If he was bearish in 95 or 96 then yes I can criticize him. 1999 is a tad early, but reasonable, if he was not nuts. I am sure there was plenty of garbage headed down then if he picked the right stuff.
I can criticize those who after this mess, still think this market is undervalued, etc.
This market is overvalued by ANY rational method IMO, and even more so for a bear market.
I would prefer not to fight you, as you have some very valid points from time to time. I am not L and I do not want to be treated like L. You seem to think everyone on that board is a Clown. Well there are plenty of them there.
There are plenty of good posters as well. I PUBLICALLY blasted someone making assinine comments to Lizzie. I can not stand certain kinds of behavior and BS sexist off color, racist remarks are not tolerable IMO. I would prefer bulls and bears to get along.
I do draw the line on absurdity.
When we are as overbought as we have been, monthly stochastics pinned to the very top, BPCOMPQ thru the roof, and I see people looking for more up, and OJ touting KLIC KLAC taking a bath, the top for the year is possibly in.
Bulls and bears alike never seem to get out soon enough IMO.
I prefer open dialog that makes sense. Touting stocks when we were as overbought as we were, in a bear marker seems silly. Overstaying ones welcome at the bottom is equally silly.
I have done both.
That said, this is and will remain a bear market until proven otherwise. Valuation sucks, earnings suck, fundamentals suck, the deficit sucks, balance of trade sucks, pent up demand for housing and cars is non existant, layoffs suck, the US$ sucks, rising commodities and lower prices on finihed goods due to deflation sucks, job losses suck, and the poor consumer is tee totally tapped out.
Yes markets rise when things SEEM the worst, but everytone still believes in the second half recovery. Well we will see a second half recovery, some year, when
a) no one cares
b) no one believes it
Right now there is paranoid fear of missing the bottom.
Well on any reasonable metric, we have not seen the bottom.
That is my take but in between there will be declines and rallies while the entire marketb on the whole reaces fair valuation.
This can and probably will take years cause the administration and the FED would not take reasonable lumps on time and have created a deflation mess, a credit bubble mess, and a housing bubble mess, while praying consumers spend well beyond their means. We now have 3 bubbles where there was once only one.
We are on a death spiral like Japan now, and probably nothing can stop it.
M |
