Investing during a Bear Market Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Investing during a Bear Market

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To: jerry sigalow who wrote (25)	11/8/1997 12:53:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) of 226

Jerry, I really do not think we are going into a severe defalation here in the US just continuing decline to the rate of inflation, but not actually net price declines. Too much of our economy is sheltered from competitive pressures of lower cost labor from outside. Furthermore, I think that we are still going to see a intrinsic growth in the world consumer society despite the current debacle in the rim. China has escaped this debacle and probably will on this cycle. I actually think that China and India are going to act as "engines of growth" for the world economies over the next 15 years. As a result I do not buy either a major deflation nor stagflation, just readjustment in the market as a result of FEAR of such developments, but not actualization of such developments. I do not think that very long term bearishness will pay. I think we should be out of this with dammage kimited to about 6200 on the dow and 1250 to 1300 on the NAZ by next June (quite a respectable bear market but nothin like Japan has been sufferung since their top at 40,000 on the NIKEI, what was the PE then, 100?). Zeev

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