Dvd-rom Could Make 1998 Inroads
Consumer Electronics
Mon, Dec 01 1997
Although chicken-&-egg uncertainties have limited growth of DVD-ROM software and hardware this year, 1998 could be different story, said suppliers polled at Comdex show in Las Vegas. Executives we canvassed generally agreed that if DVD-ROM drives ultimately supplant CD-ROM players as standard equipment in mainstream PCs, 1998 will be year in which DVD-ROM will start to make inroads. Contributing to that view is widespread belief expressed at Comdex that with CD-ROM drive speeds jumping to 32x, established format might well be on road toward being edged out. Biggest trump card on how fast DVD-ROM could rise to top depends on availability of Microsoft's Windows 98 operating system. With Windows 98 set to arrive in 2nd quarter of 1998, many DVD-ROM drive makers are banking on flurry of software that never materialized this year after many developers delayed plans pending completion of drivers for new operating system. "There isn't a good solid DVD-ROM computer format out there yet and there won't be until Microsoft comes out with its operating system," Pioneer Exec. Vp James Lantz said. "Microsoft is the big gun in this whole thing because they will decide the file format, what they can handle and what will make it easy for the rest of their programs." Expected arrival of Windows 98 and installation of DVD-ROM drives in high-end PCs has caused many CD-ROM drive makers to halt rapidly increasing speed race at 32x. Panasonic CD-ROM Product Mgr. Douglas Felder, typifying others, said he believes 32x will be uppermost limit for CD-ROM feature sets, and if DVD reaches market in strength expected, "it will be hot for Christmas 1998." However, Felder said he's hedging his bets now on DVD-ROM because "we don't have a killer application out there yet." DVD-ROM accounted for less than 1% of 700,000 standalone drives sold in first 9 months of year, PC Data Analyst Steve Baker said. Not all vendors are preparing for end to CD-ROM speed wars. Hi-Val Exec. Vp Edward Meadows said he may push suppliers to add another generation of CD-ROM drives by spring, although speeds and other features haven't been set. "If DVD-ROM cannot get its act together, we will go forward with a faster CD-ROM," said Meadows, whose company recently cut back plans to launch DVD software racks in PC retail stores (TVD Nov 24 p15). "The notebook {computer} people said they would never go above a 24x, but if somebody can make a 32x run as vibrationless as a 24x, they will pick it up. The same goes for a new generation of {CD-ROM} drives." Manufacturing costs and retail pricing will be deciding factors in how fast industry switches to DVD-ROM, vendors said. At present, said suppliers we polled, average DVD-ROM drive costs about $150 to produce, and growth will follow when costs decline below $100, as many predict they will in 1998 due to production efficiencies. In turn, lower production costs also could yield sub-$200 retail pricing for drives, vendors said. "The minute the technology gets down to a cost of less than $100 then it will really start taking over the CD space," Digital Video Systems Pres.-COO Thomas Parkinson said. "The key is you have to hit that $1,000 PC. Then it wins because it reads CD, so why not buy something with more capacity?" Yet even while DVD-ROM fights to gain foothold, rewritable DVD for data storage -- in whatever manifestation -- looms on horizon, suppliers said. Executives such as Pioneer's Lantz said they see DVD-ROM and rewritable DVD coexisting as "2 different venues" for 2 years until rewritable formats reach pricing parity with $300 average retail ticket of today's existing CD-R write-once drives.
(Copyright 1997 by Warren Publishing, Inc.) |
