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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated
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To: LindyBill who started this subject1/25/2004 7:11:52 AM
From: LindyBill   of 793838
 
REAL CLEAR POLITICS
NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL MADNESS: There are now 6 overnight tracking polls in New Hampshire. That's right, six. And that doesn't include the Boston Herald/RKM poll which is now coming out weekly. It's absolute madness. If I were a voter in New Hampshire, I'd probably unplug my phone and my television for the next week until the storm blows over.

Before we go any further, a few quick words on tracking polls. They are extremely volatile, use small sample sizes, and have large margins of error. One of the reasons we like to average the latest polling data is that it helps smooth out some of the up and down swings that show up in various polls.

Even with all those caveats, it's clear there is a sea change going on in New Hampshire. Right now Kerry leads Dean by an average of 6.6% and it's going to get worse today as four more of the tracking polls coming out this morning will have samples that fully register Dean's "rebel yell" in Des Moines on Monday night.
UPDATE: ARG & Zogby added, Kerry lead now 8.3%. ARG has Dean dropping into 3rd place behind Clark.
UPDATE: CNN/USAT/Gallup added, Kerry lead now 9.3%.

I know voters in New Hampshire are notoriously independent, but it's hard to see where the surprise is going to come from. Kerry is moving up while Dean is sinking and Clark is static. Edwards is the only other candidate on the rise, but it seems unlikely he'll be able to surge 20 points in 4 days to catch Kerry. And Lieberman? Sorry, Joe. Nice guys always finish last.
realclearpolitics.com
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