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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?

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To: jack rand who wrote (2635)4/1/1997 10:03:00 PM
From: Art Stone   of 13594
 
Much of AOL's move today on rumour started by a newsletter that AOL would "make a bid for Compuserve".

Seems far-fetched. AOL's balance sheet and cashflow certainly can't support debt. Stock?


Certainly. AOL always buys things with its stock. @$45/share, AOL would only need to trade about 25 million shares In return, AOL would get around $250 million in working capital, and an overbuilt, underutilized network.

Systems as incompatible as u can get. AOL is Stratus with home grown software. CIS 250 WIN NT servers with code rewrittem from ground up 2 years ago. Networks have significant overlap.

Not as incompatible as you might think. AOL has been quietly migrating their systems to Tandem's (http://www.tandem.com) new systems, which are using the Windows NT kernel, and a Posix "personality". The advantage of Tandem's architecture is that ServerNet should be highly scalable, whereas Stratus had exhausted its ability to run any faster.

Not to mention why should AOL go up on such news? It already was awarded premium for CIS abandoning the mass market.

Because it would signal that the contest is over. AOL has won the race, and now will be the single player from the United States in Europe and Japan.

It all makes sense to me. And is intensely depressing....
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