Hi Westi. Lieberman is certainly the most moderate of the group, though I don't think that he has much of a chance at getting the nomination. He is too low key and, as the article noted, he started too late.
BTW, Bob Graham currently trails George Bush in Florida. I personally do not think that Graham's inclusion on the Democratic ticket as its VP adds much. It might make Florida more competitive, but GWB will still win the state.
sun-sentinel.com
Florida poll has good news for Bush, Graham
By William E. Gibson
Washington Bureau Chief
Posted June 22 2003
WASHINGTON -- Sen. Bob Graham holds an commanding lead in his home state of Florida over all rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination, but he trails President Bush in a potential general-election matchup, according to a poll conducted for the South Florida Sun-Sentinel.
The poll found high public-approval ratings for both Graham and Bush in Florida, the state that decided the last presidential election. The president drew especially strong support among Hispanic voters, indicating that his outreach efforts and Cuba policies have strengthened his re-election chances.
The poll of 600 Floridians who regularly vote in statewide elections -- plus an additional sample of likely Democratic primary voters -- offers a snapshot of the presidential race in the most important swing state at a time when voters are still getting familiar with the candidates.
If the Florida Democratic primary were held today, Graham would bury his rivals for the presidential nomination, the poll shows.
He was the choice of 49 percent of the Democrats sampled, followed by Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman and Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri, who each drew 10 percent. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts was favored by 8 percent of Democratic voters, and five other candidates drew 6 percent or less.
In a hypothetical matchup between Bush and Graham, the poll of 600 voters -- Democrats, Republicans and independents -- put the president ahead 53 percent to 40 percent, with 7 percent undecided.
Bush led Graham among voters in all regions of the state except South Florida, the Democratic stronghold in Florida, where the senator led 53 percent to 36 percent.
"It's good news for both Bush and Graham," said Del Ali, president of Research 2000, an independent polling firm based in Rockville, Md., which conducted the poll June 7 to 11.
"Bush can say, `Bob Graham is a very popular senator and former governor, and I not only lead him in his own state, but the margin is in double-digits,'" Ali observed. "Bob Graham can say, `Right now, paired up against a guy at his zenith -- a commander in chief who just had a successful military operation -- I'm only 13 points down.'"
"These are not bad numbers for Graham at this point. If the question is: `Can Bob Graham beat George Bush in Florida,' no doubt he can."
Presidential ratings
The Florida poll tracks national surveys that show high public-approval ratings of the president's performance, particularly his leadership on security issues at home and abroad. Some 71 percent rated Bush's handling of the war on terrorism as good or excellent.
"He put in place a lot of progress on homeland security that we should have had for years," said E.J. Boardley, 38, an Air Force master sergeant in Melbourne, Fla., a Republican who was polled. "Rounding up potential terrorists, that was a good move. And his administration took out the funding sources of terrorism, first in Afghanistan and then in Iraq."
As for Graham and other Democrats, "I wouldn't trust any of them with national security," Boardley said. "None of them have an idea or any kind of plan on their own. They have been hemming and hawing about what we're doing now. They are just waffling; it's pretty transparent."
Poll ratings are mixed on Bush's handling of the economy, indicating a vulnerability that Graham and other Democrats could exploit.
"Economy/jobs" topped the list of most important issues to voters polled, followed by "homeland security" and "taxes/government spending." Health care, Social Security and education -- issues that tend to favor Democrats and dominated past elections -- fell to the bottom of this poll's priority list.
A little less than half -- 45 percent -- rated Bush's handling of the economy as good or excellent, while 52 percent rated it fair or poor.
"The economy is going to pot, and he [Bush] is not helping any," said John McConkey, 74, a retired sheet-metal worker in Daytona Beach, and a Democrat who was polled. "The cities are broke, the states are broke. He talked about this big education program, but then didn't come up with the money for it.
"Mr. Bush is nothing but a rich man. All he's done since he got in there was cut taxes for the rich people and help the big companies. We had a surplus when he came in, and all we have now is a federal deficit."
Most voters clearly have not yet tuned into the presidential race, though the candidates have been campaigning and raising money for months.
Democratic unknowns
Some Florida voters in the poll said they barely recognized the names of the candidates, except for Graham, their senator, and Lieberman, the former vice presidential candidate, who once joked that he spent so much time in South Florida he qualified as a part-time resident. In this climate, home-grown Graham of Miami Lakes soars above fellow Democrats.
The president, of course, is recognizable to everybody. And he or his brother, Gov. Jeb Bush, or their father, former President George H.W. Bush, have been on the ballot in Florida in six recent election years -- 1988, 1992, 1994, 1998, 2000 and 2002.
"The fact that at this stage Bush has an advantage is not a surprise at all. The same could be said about the 1992 election, when George Bush the elder was president," said George Gonzalez, assistant professor of political science at the University of Miami. "A year and a half before the election, Bill Clinton was barely a blip on the radar screen in public opinion polls.
"With Al Gore dropping out of the race [last year], you basically have a very low-visibility set of Democratic candidates."
The exception is Lieberman, who has been visible in Florida since the 2000 campaign, yet drew support from only 10 percent of the 500 Democrats who were polled.
"At this stage of the game, in June 2003, polls mean little. It's too early in the process," said Jano Cabrera, spokesman for the Lieberman campaign. "People have yet to focus on what they are doing for the Fourth of July, let alone who they intend to vote for. That said, no one can dispute the popularity and goodwill that Sen. Graham has fostered in the state of Florida."
Bush vs. Graham
Graham has enjoyed widespread support in his home state, even from many Republicans, giving him the reputation of being one of the most popular politicians in Florida history. The poll this month indicated, however, that his popularity is exceeded by the president's.
In the matchup of Bush vs. Graham, the president was backed by a majority of those sampled in all adult age groups, except for those 60 and older, who favored Graham 49 percent to 45 percent.
Some of the president's strongest support came from Hispanics, who backed him over Graham by 68 percent to 29 percent. Florida Hispanics -- unlike those of New York, California and other states -- have strong Republican leanings, particularly Cuban-Americans who favor the GOP's tough anti-communist foreign policies.
Bush in 2000 won about 80 percent of the Cuban-American vote and slightly more than half of the non-Cuban Hispanic vote in Florida, said Dario Moreno, a pollster, political science professor and director of The Metropolitan Center at Florida International University. Former President Clinton was the most successful Democratic candidate in recent elections in Florida, winning 40 percent of the Cuban-American vote and roughly 60 percent of non-Cuban Hispanics.
"In Miami, Cubans are right-wing on foreign policy and moderate on social policy," Moreno said. "Non-Cuban Hispanics have tended to follow that line. You have a lot of people who fled left-wing movements. And the Puerto Ricans who come to Florida are different from those in New York. A large percentage of them are English speakers, they are much more middle class, many own their own businesses. You have a Republican constituency here."
This month's poll indicates that the Republican trend may have spread.
"I think the poll numbers really reflect how the Republicans have reached out beyond the Cuban community in Miami-Dade County to other Hispanics and really established a commanding lead there," Moreno said. "What's surprising about that is that Graham, who has had a lot of support in the Hispanic community in the past, is not translating that to the presidential level. That's because his home-state advantage is negated by the Bushes."
Florida base
Bush has visited Florida many times during his presidency, knowing that the state's electoral votes clinched his victory in 2000 and could prove decisive again in 2004. For Graham and Bush, and to some extent Lieberman, Florida poses a vital base of support for fund-raising as well as votes.
Early poll results in Florida indicate the initial strengths of their campaigns in a key state, which could affect fund-raising and support in the early primary states, where voters are looking for a winner. This is particularly important for Graham, who is telling voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and elsewhere that he hails from the most important swing state and represents "the electable wing of the Democratic Party."
The Graham campaign hailed the poll numbers.
"To have those kinds of numbers in the fourth-largest state, which happens to be the most important swing state, sends an important signal both to donors and to political leaders who look for verification that we can find a candidate who can win in the South," said Steve Jarding, communications director of the Graham campaign.
Jarding said Bush's 53-to-40 advantage over Graham reflected the president's popularity at its peak. "We are just beginning our campaign," Jarding said. "Some home-state voters will not come around until the campaign heats up. When the campaign gets closer, the undecided will break his [Graham's] way."
The Bush campaign, which is just getting organized, would not comment on the poll results. "The nine Democrats running for president are just background noise for us right now," a spokesman said.
The Sun-Sentinel poll indicates that Graham's lead may be insurmountable in a Florida Democratic primary, but that if he gets the nomination, he would have to work hard to win his home state in the general election.
For some independent voters -- such as Larry Brier, 46, of Tallahassee -- the Democratic standard-bearer will need to do some coaxing to get them to the polls. Brier said he definitely opposes Bush's policy of preemptive military strikes abroad and tax-cut economics at home, but he is still looking over the Democratic alternatives.
"It's possible," Brier said, "that if I'm not comfortable with any candidate, I will not vote at all."
William E. Gibson can be reached at wgibson@sun-sentinel.com or 202-824-8256 in Washington.
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