A candidates’ guide to South Carolina - A "star" read
By LEE BANDY
Staff Writer
The SC State
Dear Democratic presidential candidates,
Welcome to South Carolina.
You’re going to be spending a lot of time here over the next 10 days. But with your busy campaign schedules, the state may be a blur to you. So, let’s talk a few minutes about the state and its politics.
South Carolina has beautiful beaches, excellent barbecue, lots of smiling faces and plenty of Baptist churches.
It also has lots of conservatives.
The last time this state voted for a Democrat for president was nearly 28 years ago, when Jimmy Carter ran. Before that, it was John F. Kennedy in 1960. So, the state has voted for a Democratic president only twice in the last 44 years.
But this is not a Republican state. Nor is it a Democratic state.
It’s a conservative state — conservative in terms of the role of government, conservative in terms of cultural issues, conservative in terms of its strong support of the military, and conservative in terms of public policy.
You will find two competitive minority parties, either of which is capable of winning a statewide race with the right candidate and the right issues.
One of you might be so lucky.
Exit polls consistently show about a third of S.C. voters are Republicans, a third are Democrats, and a third are independents — the so-called swing voters, the ones who decide elections.
No one has any idea who or how many of those voters will cast ballots in the Feb. 3 primary. Turnout estimates range from 275,000 to 325,000.
The S.C. presidential primary is open to all registered voters. Because of that, people always speculate whether supporters of one party will create mischief by voting in the other’s primary. The practice never appears to be widespread.
TESTING THEMES FOR BLACK VOTERS
The primary clearly has energized the S.C. Democratic Party, which was given up for dead after the 2002 election. That year, Republicans won elections for governor, U.S. Senate and all but two of the state’s constitutional offices.
But, this year, Democratic crowds are up, and enthusiasm is on the rise.
“What I’ve learned is that media people have star power just like the candidates themselves. When they see folks like David Broder of the Washington Post or Tom Brokaw of NBC News, suddenly Democrats start to get it that they are important and that their vote counts,” says state Democratic Party chairman Joe Erwin.
You will find Democrats here are much more conservative than they are in Iowa and New Hampshire. A recent poll showed that 41 percent of South Carolinians call themselves conservative to very conservative.
Much of this could be because many South Carolinians are very religious. The state, after all, is the buckle on the Bible Belt.
These Democrats are regular churchgoers. They oppose abortion, favor school prayer and frown on gay marriages.
Many blacks, a core constituency of the S.C. Democratic Party, call themselves evangelicals.
“Black Christians look like the Christian Coalition on moral issues,” says College of Charleston analyst Bill Moore.
Race is still a major part of life down here. It is manifested in all sorts of ways.
There’s the ongoing debate over the Confederate battle flag. Beyond that, the two major political parties are split by race; 90 percent or more of black voters side with Democrats. And much, though not all, of the gap in the socioeconomic status is linked to race.
Blacks, a nonfactor in Iowa and New Hampshire, are expected to make up nearly half of the primary voters. But blacks are not united behind a single candidate.
Different black leaders identify with different candidates. State Sen. John Matthews of Orangeburg is supporting former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean; Richland County Council chairwoman Bernice Scott is backing U.S. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts.
This primary is significant because it is the first contest in which the candidates can test their appeal in the black community, the party’s most loyal constituency.
With black voters apparently split among the candidates, a premium is placed on the white vote.
“There will be a battle for the white vote,” says Kevin Gray, a local black activist and, until recently, a consultant to the Rev. Al Sharpton.
JOBS, HEALTH CARE AND IRAQ
As a result, no candidate is a clear favorite.
Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary will help shape the contest some. But to what extent is not clear.
The last S.C. poll, taken in late December, showed Dean, Sharpton, Wesley Clark and John Edwards all within four points of each other.
Issues here are the same as they are in Iowa and New Hampshire. The top three, in the order of importance, are jobs, health care and the Iraqi war.
The economy has not bounced back in the manufacturing sector, and job losses have become a major issue. Last year alone, 15,100 manufacturing jobs were lost in South Carolina. In some counties, the unemployment rate is as high as 18 percent.
Voters like Cato Coleman, an 83-year-old cobbler from Newberry, question whether the economy is on the rebound.
“How can the economy be coming back when they are sending so many jobs overseas?” he asks.
That’s one of the many questions you’ll be asked between now and Feb. 3. Many South Carolinians will be watching you closely during your stay here.
Most of them know you probably won’t be back for at least another year. Because in November, this is Bush country.
The next time you see South Carolina will likely be from a plane as you fly from Pennsylvania to Georgia.
But we’ll enjoy having you while you’re here.
Cheers.
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