Carl,
The market action from 8/82 til 7/20 was a parabolic style run up not seen very often in markets. The slope in these parabolic runups is high (8/82-1/94), higher (12/94-8/97), and highest(10/29/97-7/20/98). One only need to look at the OSX (Oil Service Sector) chart from last year, and the Iomega chart from '96, to see how these parabolic climbs end. Please consider not only duration, but slope in your count.
Please understand that the wave counts get compressed as you near the end of the climb, explaining why cycle wave 2(1/94-12/94) lasted one year, and cycle wave 4 (8/6/97-10/28/97) lasted only 3 months.
The most important bit of evidence I can give you that the supercycle wave from 8/82 is over is this: Cycle wave 1 (8/82-1/94) in this count lasted 137 months. Cycle wave 3 (1/94-8/97) lasted 32 months. When cycle wave 3 is shorter in duration than cycle wave 1, cycle wave 5 is almost always the same duration ratio to wave 3, as 3 was to 1. Wave 3 was .2336 of wave 1. .2336 X 32 months = 7.5 months. 7.5 months added to the end of October last year, or middle of November as the other possible beginning of this Cycle wave 5, would target the mid June to early July time frame for the Cycle wave 5 peak to come in.
The peak, of course, came in at 7/20, so chalk another one up for the market's ability to out-fox the foxes. It had a few weeks reserve in the gas tanks, I guess, but when the gas ran out, the engines sputtered out, and the plane that was ascending at a phenomenol rate began descending just as quickly. Altitude still at 30,000 feet, but she's heading down at 10,000 feet per week. 3 weeks to ground zero (600 SPX/5000Dow?).
Regards,
David |
