Populism versus Elitism
WEEKLY STANDARD BLOG
By Matthew Continetti
Elites in the media and in both political parties don't like John McCain's choice of Alaska governor Sarah Palin to be his running mate. But conservative activists are incredibly enthused. It is likely that, if Palin performs well, popular opinion at large will also respond favorably to her.
What is going on here? A phenomenon that has occurred, as Jeffrey Bell has pointed out, time and again in modern American politics: the elite opinion stream and the popular opinion stream are running against one another. What has tended to happen over the years, of course, is that the popular opinion stream wins - not only politically, but (most of the time) on the merits as well.
*****************************************
A Sudden Reversal
By Matthew Continetti
How much does experience matter to voters? Not much, if the recent past is any guide. How much experience did Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush have in foreign affairs prior to becoming president? None. How much would Barack Obama have? Less than a little.
Democratic primary voters seemed not to have cared about Barack Obama's lack of experience, Hillary Clinton's main charge against him. They supported Obama for other reasons.
McCain's selection of Sarah Palin has ushered in a great rhetorical reversal: Suddenly Democrats are attacking Palin for a lack of experience, something they cared little about when it was Obama who was inexperienced. Now it matters a great deal to them, apparently. And it is now Republicans who are arguing in behalf of change - a fresh voice, a historical milestone, the future of conservatism, and so on.
Change worked - and is working - for Obama. Now McCain wants it to work for him.
*******************************************
Polling Palin: Dead Heat
By John McCormack
Three polls--all conducted entirely after the Democratic National Convention concluded--show the presidential race to be a dead heat.
CNN: Obama-Biden 49, McCain-Palin 48
Rasmussen: Obama-Biden 49, McCain-Palin 46
Zogby: Obama-Biden 45, McCain-Palin 47.
According to the polls, many voters still don't know enough to have a firm opinion about Palin, but Zogby notes that she boosts McCain's support among Republicans by three points, while Biden had no effect on Obama's support among Democrats. One of the many signs of Palin's popularity among the Republican base is the Obama-sized crowd of 17,000 she and McCain drew to a rally in Missouri over the weekend.
But it's not just Republicans who like Palin. Rasmussen reported Saturday that while 43 percent of voters had a favorable view of Joe Biden on the day he was picked by Obama, 53 percent of voters have a favorable of Palin:
Palin earns positive reviews from 78% of Republicans, 26% of Democrats and 63% of unaffiliated voters. Obviously, these numbers will be subject to change as voters learn more about her in the coming weeks. Among all voters, 29% have a Very Favorable opinion of Palin while 9% hold a Very Unfavorable view. |
